Hurricane Intelligence Florida
Hurricane Intelligence Florida: Florida impacts and ENSO, 1851 to present. A JnGmedia property.

Fingerprint matching | 128 storms | 1851-2025

Analog Finder

Two ways in: compare a real storm's track against history, or describe a hypothetical scenario. Analogs are context, never forecasts.

Compare a Real Storm's Track

Pick a storm to see which historical storms score highest for similarity of path.

How matches are scored

Matches are scored two genuinely different ways: how close the tracks actually ran to each other near Florida, and how each storm handled the Florida Straits/Cuba shelf on approach — a narrow, shallow area that tends to interrupt intensification and produce more erratic short-term heading changes than the deep open Gulf or Atlantic. Both scores show separately on every card, so the ranking is never a black box.

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Comparing to

Rita (2005)

peak 5 · FL impact 1.

Neutral 1FL impact Major Hurricane (Cat 3+) Rapid Intensification
Formed
2005-09-18
Dissipated
2005-09-26
Peak wind
155 kt
Lifetime category
5
Min pressure
895 mb (lifetime)
Florida date
2005-09-22
Approach
gulf
FL regions
SW1
Center landfall
no
ENSO (ASO ONI)
-0.11
Peak surge (FL)
not yet curated

Surge: no curated record yet. An NHC Tropical Cyclone Report exists for storms of this era; this one is awaiting verification against it. Values are only shown after being checked against an NHC source (see methodology).

Top 6 Top 20 All matches
Every storm since 1851 is included -- tap for how older matches are weighted

Storms before 1968 (radar/satellite) rank lower by a continuous confidence discount, not a hard cutoff: 1944-1967 (aircraft reconnaissance) counts at 75% of its raw match strength, 1911-1943 (station data + ship reports) at 50%, and pre-1911 (ship reports and land stations only) at 30% -- illustrative weights, not a published figure, matching the same four eras disclosed on the Zone Lab. A strong enough old match can still surface; look for "era confidence: N%" in that card's reasons.

Ranked by near-Florida path first (how close the two tracks actually ran to each other once near the state), then by Straits/Cuba approach (did each handle the shallow shelf the same way on the way in), then by trait match. These answer genuinely different questions -- a storm can wobble identically on approach and still land 300 miles apart, or vice versa -- so they are shown separately, never blended into one number.

Showing 127 matches out of every candidate that scored above zero in this range -- watch the near-Florida number taper toward the bottom of the list; that decay is the ranking actually working, not an artifact.

  • Rita (2005)
  • AL021919 (1919)
  • Florida Straits corridor

Track colors below are always: teal = Rita, orange = the comparison storm named in each card -- shaded darker where that storm was stronger at that point, lighter where it was weaker, so intensity along the path reads without losing track of which line is which. On desktop these show as compact thumbnails, three per row; being vector maps they stay crisp at any size. Click a storm's name to open its own full-size record and track.

View Rita and these matches in the Zone Lab tool

View these storms on the Track Map

AL021919 (1919) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 1 of 2 · trait match 1.8 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Ivan (2004) peak 5 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 7 of 8 same month, same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida
Katrina (2005) peak 5 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida
AL061906 (1906) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 same month, gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Inez (1966) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 3.4 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL021916 (1916) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Wilma (2005) peak 5 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 7 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Hazel (1953) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.8 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Betsy (1965) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 1.3 of 2 · trait match 2.4 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Southeastern States (1856) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 1.2 of 2 · trait match -0.6 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Key West (1861) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 1.3 of 2 · trait match -1 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Milton (2024) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 7 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Great Mobile (1852) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 1.6 of 2 · trait match -0.9 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL101924 (1924) peak 5 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match 2.4 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL081859 (1859) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041917 (1917) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 1 of 2 · trait match 2.1 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Andrew (1992) peak 5 · FL impact 5 near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 1.2 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL051873 (1873) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Floyd (1987) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL061874 (1874) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 same month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031891 (1891) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 1.7 of 2 · trait match -1.3 of 8 adjacent month, similar Florida Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL071935 (1935) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match -0.6 of 8 somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Michael (2018) peak 5 · FL impact 5 near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Isbell (1964) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.8 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Tampa Bay (1921) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0.8 of 2 · trait match 1.8 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Kate (1985) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 1.5 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 gulf approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL021886 (1886) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match -0.1 of 8 gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Dennis (2005) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 1.1 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Agnes (1972) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Great Middle Florida (1851) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 1.1 of 2 · trait match -0.3 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041896 (1896) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 same month, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Helene (2024) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 7 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL011896 (1896) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match -0.1 of 8 gulf approach, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041915 (1915) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.3 of 8 same month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Middle Florida (1852) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL131944 (1944) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match 3.5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Ian (2022) peak 5 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 7 of 8 same month, same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL091947 (1947) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.1 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL011945 (1945) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.2 of 8 gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL031888 (1888) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0.8 of 2 · trait match -0.2 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Twin Key West (I) (1870) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Gladys (1968) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, same ENSO phase
AL051933 (1933) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Hermine (2016) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same month, gulf approach, same ENSO phase
AL021882 (1882) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 1.4 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 same month, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Charley (2004) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble
AL081948 (1948) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.9 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Elena (1985) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 1.5 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 same month, gulf approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle
AL041887 (1887) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 gulf approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021906 (1906) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match -0.7 of 8 similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL081906 (1906) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL061882 (1882) peak 4 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 1 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Idalia (2023) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0.8 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble
AL031932 (1932) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 1 of 2 · trait match -0.1 of 8 adjacent month, similar Florida Straits wobble, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Florence (1953) peak 3 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.7 of 8 same month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL051924 (1924) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.9 of 8 same month, gulf approach, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Irene (1999) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier
Georges (1998) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier
AL041947 (1947) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL071865 (1865) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0.8 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL051876 (1876) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match 0.1 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041886 (1886) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL061946 (1946) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.6 of 2 · trait match 2.8 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL071888 (1888) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.1 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041894 (1894) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 same month, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Sally (2020) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 same month, somewhat similar Straits approach angle
AL051910 (1910) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL051936 (1936) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 1.6 of 2 · trait match -0.8 of 8 similar Florida Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Baker (1950) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 1.6 of 2 · trait match 3.4 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Debby (2024) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 1 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle
AL091948 (1948) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 1 of 2 · trait match 1.3 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Eloise (1975) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle
AL021899 (1899) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match -0.3 of 8 rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
King (1950) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.8 of 2 · trait match 2.8 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Labor Day (1935) peak 5 · FL impact 5 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 2.1 of 8 same month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL051941 (1941) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Irma (2017) peak 5 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 same month, same peak category, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle
Cleo (1964) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 2.1 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL051878 (1878) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.6 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 same month, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021929 (1929) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.6 of 2 · trait match 1.7 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Donna (1960) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.6 of 2 · trait match 3.6 of 8 same month, category within 1, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Alma (1966) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.6 of 2 · trait match 2.9 of 8 gulf approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL101926 (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match 1.3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL091945 (1945) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 2.2 of 8 same month, category within 1, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
David (1979) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 same month, same peak category, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier
Matthew (2016) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier
Earl (1998) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier
Opal (1995) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier
Flossy (1956) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4.5 of 8 same month, gulf approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Frances (2004) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier
Easy (1950) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.8 of 8 same month, gulf approach, same ENSO phase, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Jeanne (2004) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 same month, rapid intensifier
Lake Okeechobee (1928) peak 5 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.5 of 8 same month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Dora (1964) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.3 of 8 same month, category within 1, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL021949 (1949) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Erin (1995) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier
AL141916 (1916) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031912 (1912) peak 0 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 same month, gulf approach, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL111933 (1933) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 same month, category within 1, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Great Miami (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 same month, category within 1, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031911 (1911) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL111909 (1909) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021877 (1877) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 same month, gulf approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031873 (1873) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 same month, gulf approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL061871 (1871) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 same month, gulf approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011928 (1928) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL011926 (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031903 (1903) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 same month, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011886 (1886) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041877 (1877) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Great Carolina (1854) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 same month, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011898 (1898) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL071898 (1898) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Galveston (1867) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031859 (1859) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 same month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021852 (1852) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 same month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021939 (1939) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL011915 (1915) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031904 (1904) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL071894 (1894) peak 2 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Sea Islands (1893) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011885 (1885) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041880 (1880) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL111880 (1880) peak 0 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031871 (1871) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041871 (1871) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Twin Key West (II) (1870) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)

View Rita and these matches in the Zone Lab tool

View these storms on the Track Map

Show the LEAST similar tracks instead

The other direction: storms whose tracks and traits share the least with Rita, for calibration.

4AL021919 1919 score 4.2 | same month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943) 5Ivan 2004 score 8.4 | same month, same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida 5Katrina 2005 score 6.4 | adjacent month, same peak category, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida

Describe a Hypothetical Scenario

Pick the traits you're curious about, and we'll find historical storms that match.

How matches are scored

Scoring weighs month (2), peak category (2), approach side (2), and ENSO phase (1), plus an optional point for rapid intensifiers; each match explains exactly which traits it shares.

Pick at least one trait above to search. Example scenario: October, Category 4, Gulf approach, Neutral phase; three of the last five Gulf-side October majors will look uncomfortably familiar.

Wondering about a storm active right now? The home page shows the latest NHC observations with their historical analogs.

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