Hurricane Intelligence Florida
Hurricane Intelligence Florida: Florida impacts and ENSO, 1851 to present. A JnGmedia property.

Fingerprint matching | 128 storms | 1851-2025

Analog Finder

Two ways in: compare a real storm's track against history, or describe a hypothetical scenario. Analogs are context, never forecasts.

Compare a Real Storm's Track

Pick a storm to see which historical storms score highest for similarity of path.

How matches are scored

Matches are scored two genuinely different ways: how close the tracks actually ran to each other near Florida, and how each storm handled the Florida Straits/Cuba shelf on approach — a narrow, shallow area that tends to interrupt intensification and produce more erratic short-term heading changes than the deep open Gulf or Atlantic. Both scores show separately on every card, so the ranking is never a black box.

clear

Comparing to

Kate (1985)

peak 3 · FL impact 2.

Neutral 2FL impact Major Hurricane (Cat 3+) Rapid Intensification
Formed
1985-11-15
Dissipated
1985-11-23
Peak wind
105 kt
Lifetime category
3
Min pressure
954 mb (lifetime)
Florida date
1985-11-21
Approach
gulf
FL regions
NW2
Center landfall
yes (1)
ENSO (ASO ONI)
-0.40
Peak surge (FL)
none exists for this era

Surge: no curated record, and none is likely to exist. Reliable landfall-zone surge observation generally predates neither the modern gauge network nor NHC Tropical Cyclone Reports for storms of this era; surge comparisons on this site skew modern as a result (disclosed on the methodology page).

Top 6 Top 20 All matches
Every storm since 1851 is included -- tap for how older matches are weighted

Storms before 1968 (radar/satellite) rank lower by a continuous confidence discount, not a hard cutoff: 1944-1967 (aircraft reconnaissance) counts at 75% of its raw match strength, 1911-1943 (station data + ship reports) at 50%, and pre-1911 (ship reports and land stations only) at 30% -- illustrative weights, not a published figure, matching the same four eras disclosed on the Zone Lab. A strong enough old match can still surface; look for "era confidence: N%" in that card's reasons.

Ranked by near-Florida path first (how close the two tracks actually ran to each other once near the state), then by Straits/Cuba approach (did each handle the shallow shelf the same way on the way in), then by trait match. These answer genuinely different questions -- a storm can wobble identically on approach and still land 300 miles apart, or vice versa -- so they are shown separately, never blended into one number.

Showing 123 matches out of every candidate that scored above zero in this range -- watch the near-Florida number taper toward the bottom of the list; that decay is the ranking actually working, not an artifact.

  • Kate (1985)
  • Great Middle Florida (1851)
  • Florida Straits corridor

Track colors below are always: teal = Kate, orange = the comparison storm named in each card -- shaded darker where that storm was stronger at that point, lighter where it was weaker, so intensity along the path reads without losing track of which line is which. On desktop these show as compact thumbnails, three per row; being vector maps they stay crisp at any size. Click a storm's name to open its own full-size record and track.

View Kate and these matches in the Zone Lab tool

View these storms on the Track Map

Great Middle Florida (1851) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.8 of 2 · Straits approach 1.6 of 2 · trait match -1.2 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Michael (2018) peak 5 · FL impact 5 near-Florida path 1.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, ran very close to the same path across Florida
AL011896 (1896) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match -0.6 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Agnes (1972) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 gulf approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida
AL051924 (1924) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 0.1 of 8 gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Elena (1985) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 1.8 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida
AL041877 (1877) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Dennis (2005) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 1.6 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida
AL041915 (1915) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Southeastern States (1856) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match -0.5 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Middle Florida (1852) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Georges (1998) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida
Great Mobile (1852) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 1.8 of 2 · trait match -1 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Florence (1953) peak 3 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match 3.4 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Hermine (2016) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 gulf approach, same ENSO phase, ran very close to the same path across Florida
AL071935 (1935) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 0.8 of 8 same month, category within 1, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL021886 (1886) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match -0.4 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits wobble, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041887 (1887) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031873 (1873) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.3 of 8 gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Idalia (2023) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, ran very close to the same path across Florida
Helene (2024) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida
AL041917 (1917) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 1.2 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL061906 (1906) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021929 (1929) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 1 of 2 · trait match -0.1 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL011945 (1945) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.7 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Key West (1861) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 1.5 of 2 · trait match -1.5 of 8 rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Debby (2024) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 1.5 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 gulf approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL021919 (1919) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.6 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Sally (2020) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 category within 1, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL071888 (1888) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.8 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041896 (1896) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.6 of 2 · trait match 0.1 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021916 (1916) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031932 (1932) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 1.3 of 2 · trait match -1.1 of 8 similar Florida Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL061882 (1882) peak 4 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Eloise (1975) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.6 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL051936 (1936) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 1.9 of 2 · trait match -0.9 of 8 category within 1, similar Florida Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Alma (1966) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 4.1 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL061871 (1871) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.1 of 8 gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL061874 (1874) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Great Miami (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.1 of 8 category within 1, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL021882 (1882) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Betsy (1965) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 1 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL021899 (1899) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 1.3 of 2 · trait match -0.9 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Earl (1998) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Ivan (2004) peak 5 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 gulf approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL031888 (1888) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match -0.3 of 8 same peak category, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL081859 (1859) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Andrew (1992) peak 5 · FL impact 5 near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Gladys (1968) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, same ENSO phase, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Tampa Bay (1921) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 1.7 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL041947 (1947) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.3 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL031903 (1903) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.2 of 8 rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Katrina (2005) peak 5 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Erin (1995) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL051941 (1941) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL051933 (1933) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Milton (2024) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL011898 (1898) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.1 of 8 rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021939 (1939) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.3 of 8 took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL021877 (1877) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Rita (2005) peak 5 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 1.5 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 gulf approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL041886 (1886) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match -0.3 of 8 gulf approach, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Flossy (1956) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.9 of 8 gulf approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL041880 (1880) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.1 of 8 category within 1, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031891 (1891) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 1.8 of 2 · trait match -1 of 8 same peak category, similar Florida Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Hazel (1953) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.9 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Easy (1950) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.6 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, same ENSO phase, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL091947 (1947) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.9 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Dora (1964) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 category within 1, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Labor Day (1935) peak 5 · FL impact 5 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 0.1 of 8 rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL141916 (1916) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL061946 (1946) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 3.5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL131944 (1944) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 3.5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL011928 (1928) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.8 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Frances (2004) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier
AL041871 (1871) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 same peak category, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Irma (2017) peak 5 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle
Opal (1995) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier
AL051873 (1873) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 1.4 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL111933 (1933) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 category within 1, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Inez (1966) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match 2.1 of 8 adjacent month, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL051878 (1878) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 1 of 2 · trait match -0.2 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL081906 (1906) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.1 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL051910 (1910) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.4 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Wilma (2005) peak 5 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.6 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble
AL101924 (1924) peak 5 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.6 of 2 · trait match 1.7 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Ian (2022) peak 5 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 gulf approach, rapid intensifier
Jeanne (2004) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 same peak category, rapid intensifier
Charley (2004) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble
AL041894 (1894) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 same peak category, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Baker (1950) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 1.3 of 2 · trait match 3.4 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Donna (1960) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 1.1 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 category within 1, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL091948 (1948) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 2.8 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Cleo (1964) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 1.3 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
King (1950) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 2.8 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL071865 (1865) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Twin Key West (I) (1870) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.8 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL101926 (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match 1.3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL091945 (1945) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 category within 1, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Floyd (1987) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits wobble
AL051876 (1876) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, somewhat similar Straits wobble, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021906 (1906) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 0.1 of 8 category within 1, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
David (1979) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle
AL111909 (1909) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 1.7 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Isbell (1964) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4.5 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Matthew (2016) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier
Irene (1999) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier
AL021949 (1949) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL081948 (1948) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL031911 (1911) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL011886 (1886) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Galveston (1867) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011926 (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031912 (1912) peak 0 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 gulf approach, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Great Carolina (1854) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 same peak category, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL071898 (1898) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL071894 (1894) peak 2 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Sea Islands (1893) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 same peak category, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031871 (1871) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 same peak category, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Lake Okeechobee (1928) peak 5 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031904 (1904) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL111880 (1880) peak 0 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Twin Key West (II) (1870) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)

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3Great Middle Florida 1851 score 2.2 | same peak category, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911) 5Michael 2018 score 6 | adjacent month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, ran very close to the same path across Florida 2AL011896 1896 score 2 | category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)

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Scoring weighs month (2), peak category (2), approach side (2), and ENSO phase (1), plus an optional point for rapid intensifiers; each match explains exactly which traits it shares.

Pick at least one trait above to search. Example scenario: October, Category 4, Gulf approach, Neutral phase; three of the last five Gulf-side October majors will look uncomfortably familiar.

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