Hurricane Intelligence Florida
Hurricane Intelligence Florida: Florida impacts and ENSO, 1851 to present. A JnGmedia property.

Fingerprint matching | 128 storms | 1851-2025

Analog Finder

Two ways in: compare a real storm's track against history, or describe a hypothetical scenario. Analogs are context, never forecasts.

Compare a Real Storm's Track

Pick a storm to see which historical storms score highest for similarity of path.

How matches are scored

Matches are scored two genuinely different ways: how close the tracks actually ran to each other near Florida, and how each storm handled the Florida Straits/Cuba shelf on approach — a narrow, shallow area that tends to interrupt intensification and produce more erratic short-term heading changes than the deep open Gulf or Atlantic. Both scores show separately on every card, so the ranking is never a black box.

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Comparing to

Katrina (2005)

peak 5 · FL impact 1.

Neutral 1FL impact Cross-Peninsula Track Major Hurricane (Cat 3+) Rapid Intensification
Formed
2005-08-23
Dissipated
2005-08-31
Peak wind
150 kt
Lifetime category
5
Min pressure
902 mb (lifetime)
Florida date
2005-08-25
Approach
atlantic
FL regions
SE1 SW1
Center landfall
yes (1)
ENSO (ASO ONI)
-0.11
Peak surge (FL)
5 ft (Southwest Florida coast, mainland Monroe County (Gulf-side exit))

Surge: storm surge above normal tide (estimated), 3-5 ft across the landfall zone. Katrina's Florida chapter: Cat 1 crossing with the higher surge on the SW coast as she exited, exceeding the east-coast entry surge. Source: NHC TCR; NWS Katrina Service Assessment.

Top 6 Top 20 All matches
Every storm since 1851 is included -- tap for how older matches are weighted

Storms before 1968 (radar/satellite) rank lower by a continuous confidence discount, not a hard cutoff: 1944-1967 (aircraft reconnaissance) counts at 75% of its raw match strength, 1911-1943 (station data + ship reports) at 50%, and pre-1911 (ship reports and land stations only) at 30% -- illustrative weights, not a published figure, matching the same four eras disclosed on the Zone Lab. A strong enough old match can still surface; look for "era confidence: N%" in that card's reasons.

Ranked by near-Florida path first (how close the two tracks actually ran to each other once near the state), then by Straits/Cuba approach (did each handle the shallow shelf the same way on the way in), then by trait match. These answer genuinely different questions -- a storm can wobble identically on approach and still land 300 miles apart, or vice versa -- so they are shown separately, never blended into one number.

Showing 126 matches out of every candidate that scored above zero in this range -- watch the near-Florida number taper toward the bottom of the list; that decay is the ranking actually working, not an artifact.

  • Katrina (2005)
  • Ivan (2004)
  • Florida Straits corridor

Track colors below are always: teal = Katrina, orange = the comparison storm named in each card -- shaded darker where that storm was stronger at that point, lighter where it was weaker, so intensity along the path reads without losing track of which line is which. On desktop these show as compact thumbnails, three per row; being vector maps they stay crisp at any size. Click a storm's name to open its own full-size record and track.

View Katrina and these matches in the Zone Lab tool

View these storms on the Track Map

Ivan (2004) peak 5 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida
AL021919 (1919) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Inez (1966) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4.1 of 8 same peak category, atlantic approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL101924 (1924) peak 5 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0.6 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 same peak category, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Wilma (2005) peak 5 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 same peak category, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida
Rita (2005) peak 5 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida
Betsy (1965) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match 3.3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Andrew (1992) peak 5 · FL impact 5 near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0.6 of 2 · trait match 8 of 8 same month, same peak category, atlantic approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, ran very close to the same path across Florida
Isbell (1964) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL031891 (1891) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Hazel (1953) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL091947 (1947) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match -0.3 of 8 ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL051873 (1873) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match -0.9 of 8 rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Floyd (1987) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 similar Florida Straits wobble, ran very close to the same path across Florida
Key West (1861) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL071935 (1935) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 atlantic approach, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Irene (1999) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Great Mobile (1852) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match -0.3 of 8 same month, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL081948 (1948) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL071865 (1865) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match -1 of 8 somewhat similar Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Ian (2022) peak 5 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.8 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Milton (2024) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 same peak category, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL051876 (1876) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.8 of 2 · trait match -0.7 of 8 atlantic approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL081906 (1906) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 0.1 of 8 atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021906 (1906) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.2 of 8 atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031888 (1888) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.8 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Twin Key West (I) (1870) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL131944 (1944) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match 1.1 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL041947 (1947) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Charley (2004) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL091948 (1948) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL051933 (1933) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.6 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031932 (1932) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.6 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Donna (1960) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match 4.2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL041894 (1894) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 0.1 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Tampa Bay (1921) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Dennis (2005) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL051910 (1910) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Gladys (1968) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 1 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 same ENSO phase, similar Florida Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Sally (2020) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL061946 (1946) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Irma (2017) peak 5 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 7 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, atlantic approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Great Middle Florida (1851) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match -0.1 of 8 same month, somewhat similar Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Kate (1985) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL021886 (1886) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0.6 of 2 · trait match -0.9 of 8 similar Florida Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL081859 (1859) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.2 of 8 rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Southeastern States (1856) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0.8 of 2 · trait match -0.4 of 8 same month, similar Florida Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011896 (1896) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.1 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041886 (1886) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.2 of 8 adjacent month, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Georges (1998) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL091945 (1945) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.8 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL021929 (1929) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL041915 (1915) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 1 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL041896 (1896) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match -0.7 of 8 adjacent month, similar Florida Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL051936 (1936) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL061906 (1906) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0.8 of 2 · trait match -0.6 of 8 adjacent month, similar Florida Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL051941 (1941) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match 1.1 of 8 atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Labor Day (1935) peak 5 · FL impact 5 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.7 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL061882 (1882) peak 4 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL051878 (1878) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.8 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011945 (1945) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Elena (1985) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL061874 (1874) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Agnes (1972) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Easy (1950) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.4 of 8 adjacent month, same ENSO phase, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Helene (2024) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Alma (1966) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match 1.3 of 8 same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Idalia (2023) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Debby (2024) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 same month, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Cleo (1964) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 4.3 of 8 same month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL021899 (1899) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match 0.8 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Great Miami (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.8 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL051924 (1924) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
King (1950) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match 3.6 of 8 category within 1, atlantic approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Michael (2018) peak 5 · FL impact 5 near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 same peak category, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble
AL021949 (1949) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4.4 of 8 same month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL031903 (1903) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041917 (1917) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.4 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Middle Florida (1852) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.1 of 8 era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Lake Okeechobee (1928) peak 5 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.9 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL071888 (1888) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021916 (1916) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Hermine (2016) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.1 of 2 · Straits approach 1.5 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, same ENSO phase, similar Florida Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle
Frances (2004) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier
AL031871 (1871) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Jeanne (2004) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier
AL011898 (1898) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL111909 (1909) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match -0.3 of 8 rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL101926 (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.6 of 2 · trait match 1.7 of 8 category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Baker (1950) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 same month, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL021882 (1882) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
David (1979) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 7 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, atlantic approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier
Matthew (2016) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 same peak category, atlantic approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier
Erin (1995) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier
Dora (1964) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL011928 (1928) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.5 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL011926 (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Flossy (1956) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.3 of 8 adjacent month, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Earl (1998) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier
Opal (1995) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier
Eloise (1975) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier
AL021939 (1939) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL111933 (1933) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL011915 (1915) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Florence (1953) peak 3 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Sea Islands (1893) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011885 (1885) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041880 (1880) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041871 (1871) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Great Carolina (1854) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031911 (1911) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 same month, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL071898 (1898) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 category within 1, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Galveston (1867) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031859 (1859) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021852 (1852) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031904 (1904) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL071894 (1894) peak 2 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL111880 (1880) peak 0 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Twin Key West (II) (1870) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL141916 (1916) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031912 (1912) peak 0 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL041887 (1887) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011886 (1886) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021877 (1877) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031873 (1873) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL061871 (1871) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)

View Katrina and these matches in the Zone Lab tool

View these storms on the Track Map

Show the LEAST similar tracks instead

The other direction: storms whose tracks and traits share the least with Katrina, for calibration.

5Ivan 2004 score 5.7 | adjacent month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida 4AL021919 1919 score 2.3 | adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943) 5Inez 1966 score 5.7 | same peak category, atlantic approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)

Describe a Hypothetical Scenario

Pick the traits you're curious about, and we'll find historical storms that match.

How matches are scored

Scoring weighs month (2), peak category (2), approach side (2), and ENSO phase (1), plus an optional point for rapid intensifiers; each match explains exactly which traits it shares.

Pick at least one trait above to search. Example scenario: October, Category 4, Gulf approach, Neutral phase; three of the last five Gulf-side October majors will look uncomfortably familiar.

Wondering about a storm active right now? The home page shows the latest NHC observations with their historical analogs.

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