Hurricane Intelligence Florida
Hurricane Intelligence Florida: Florida impacts and ENSO, 1851 to present. A JnGmedia property.

Fingerprint matching | 128 storms | 1851-2025

Analog Finder

Two ways in: compare a real storm's track against history, or describe a hypothetical scenario. Analogs are context, never forecasts.

Compare a Real Storm's Track

Pick a storm to see which historical storms score highest for similarity of path.

How matches are scored

Matches are scored two genuinely different ways: how close the tracks actually ran to each other near Florida, and how each storm handled the Florida Straits/Cuba shelf on approach — a narrow, shallow area that tends to interrupt intensification and produce more erratic short-term heading changes than the deep open Gulf or Atlantic. Both scores show separately on every card, so the ranking is never a black box.

clear

Comparing to

Irma (2017)

peak 5 · FL impact 4.

Neutral 4FL impact Major Hurricane (Cat 3+) Rapid Intensification
Formed
2017-08-30
Dissipated
2017-09-13
Peak wind
155 kt
Lifetime category
5
Min pressure
914 mb (lifetime)
Florida date
2017-09-10
Approach
atlantic
FL regions
SW4 SE1
Center landfall
yes (2)
ENSO (ASO ONI)
-0.34
Peak surge (FL)
8 ft (Lower Florida Keys (Cudjoe Key landfall zone))

Surge: inundation above ground level, 5-8 ft across the landfall zone. Second (Marco Island) landfall zone saw lower inundation, roughly 3-5 ft with rapid onshore rise. Source: NHC Tropical Cyclone Report; Monroe County.

Top 6 Top 20 All matches
Every storm since 1851 is included -- tap for how older matches are weighted

Storms before 1968 (radar/satellite) rank lower by a continuous confidence discount, not a hard cutoff: 1944-1967 (aircraft reconnaissance) counts at 75% of its raw match strength, 1911-1943 (station data + ship reports) at 50%, and pre-1911 (ship reports and land stations only) at 30% -- illustrative weights, not a published figure, matching the same four eras disclosed on the Zone Lab. A strong enough old match can still surface; look for "era confidence: N%" in that card's reasons.

Ranked by near-Florida path first (how close the two tracks actually ran to each other once near the state), then by Straits/Cuba approach (did each handle the shallow shelf the same way on the way in), then by trait match. These answer genuinely different questions -- a storm can wobble identically on approach and still land 300 miles apart, or vice versa -- so they are shown separately, never blended into one number.

Showing 125 matches out of every candidate that scored above zero in this range -- watch the near-Florida number taper toward the bottom of the list; that decay is the ranking actually working, not an artifact.

  • Irma (2017)
  • Labor Day (1935)
  • Florida Straits corridor

Track colors below are always: teal = Irma, orange = the comparison storm named in each card -- shaded darker where that storm was stronger at that point, lighter where it was weaker, so intensity along the path reads without losing track of which line is which. On desktop these show as compact thumbnails, three per row; being vector maps they stay crisp at any size. Click a storm's name to open its own full-size record and track.

View Irma and these matches in the Zone Lab tool

View these storms on the Track Map

Labor Day (1935) peak 5 · FL impact 5 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.6 of 2 · Straits approach 1.1 of 2 · trait match 2.2 of 8 same month, same peak category, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Donna (1960) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 1.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 4.8 of 8 same month, category within 1, atlantic approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL051910 (1910) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041894 (1894) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 1.1 of 2 · trait match -0.3 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL051878 (1878) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 1.3 of 2 · trait match -0.5 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL081906 (1906) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match -0.5 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Easy (1950) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.9 of 8 same month, same ENSO phase, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
King (1950) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4.1 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL111933 (1933) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.8 of 8 same month, category within 1, atlantic approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL131944 (1944) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.9 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL091945 (1945) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 1.1 of 2 · trait match 3.1 of 8 same month, category within 1, atlantic approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL081948 (1948) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4.2 of 8 same month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Charley (2004) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida
Jeanne (2004) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida
AL021949 (1949) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.4 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL091947 (1947) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 adjacent month, similar Florida Straits wobble, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Alma (1966) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL051876 (1876) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021899 (1899) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match -0.2 of 8 atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL051941 (1941) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 1.8 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Irene (1999) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida
Ian (2022) peak 5 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, ran very close to the same path across Florida
AL061946 (1946) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Lake Okeechobee (1928) peak 5 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.9 of 8 same month, same peak category, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL041871 (1871) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Frances (2004) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 same month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida
AL011928 (1928) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.4 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031871 (1871) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Cleo (1964) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL041886 (1886) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 1.5 of 2 · trait match -1.8 of 8 similar Florida Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL101924 (1924) peak 5 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.4 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031903 (1903) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL071865 (1865) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.5 of 8 adjacent month, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Isbell (1964) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL021929 (1929) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 same month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL011898 (1898) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Debby (2024) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL021906 (1906) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match -0.4 of 8 atlantic approach, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL061882 (1882) peak 4 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031891 (1891) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match -0.5 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Gladys (1968) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, same ENSO phase, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL051873 (1873) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match -0.7 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Wilma (2005) peak 5 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Twin Key West (I) (1870) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041880 (1880) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Hazel (1953) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.3 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Inez (1966) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match 4.9 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, atlantic approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Great Miami (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 same month, category within 1, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL011926 (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL021939 (1939) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL051936 (1936) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 1 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 atlantic approach, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL041947 (1947) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4.3 of 8 same month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL091948 (1948) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.8 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL031932 (1932) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Georges (1998) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 same month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida
David (1979) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 8 of 8 same month, same peak category, atlantic approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Tampa Bay (1921) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.1 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL041896 (1896) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match -0.2 of 8 same month, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031888 (1888) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL051933 (1933) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.1 of 8 atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL011915 (1915) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.1 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Andrew (1992) peak 5 · FL impact 5 near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match 7 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, atlantic approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Floyd (1987) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 adjacent month, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Milton (2024) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Key West (1861) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Dora (1964) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.6 of 8 same month, category within 1, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Betsy (1965) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match 4.3 of 8 same month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Sally (2020) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Idalia (2023) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL021886 (1886) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.5 of 8 took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Erin (1995) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Katrina (2005) peak 5 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 7 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, atlantic approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Helene (2024) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same month, category within 1, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL061871 (1871) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 same month, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041915 (1915) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 same month, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL071935 (1935) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL061874 (1874) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 same month, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Ivan (2004) peak 5 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL081859 (1859) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL071888 (1888) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021919 (1919) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 1.7 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Elena (1985) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0.8 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 same month, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL051924 (1924) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 same month, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Great Mobile (1852) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match -0.6 of 8 adjacent month, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Dennis (2005) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0.6 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 category within 1, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle
AL011945 (1945) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Matthew (2016) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 7 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, atlantic approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier
Sea Islands (1893) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Kate (1985) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle
Great Middle Florida (1851) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match -0.3 of 8 adjacent month, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Middle Florida (1852) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 adjacent month, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031873 (1873) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 same month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Hermine (2016) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 same month, same ENSO phase, somewhat similar Straits wobble
AL011896 (1896) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Agnes (1972) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble
AL021877 (1877) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 same month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Great Carolina (1854) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.4 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL071898 (1898) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Rita (2005) peak 5 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 same month, same peak category, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle
Southeastern States (1856) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.6 of 2 · trait match -0.1 of 8 adjacent month, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Eloise (1975) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.6 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 same month, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle
Baker (1950) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match 2.2 of 8 adjacent month, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL021882 (1882) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 same month, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL061906 (1906) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 same month, somewhat similar Straits wobble, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041917 (1917) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match 1.9 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Florence (1953) peak 3 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match 2.2 of 8 same month, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL111909 (1909) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Michael (2018) peak 5 · FL impact 5 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, rapid intensifier
Earl (1998) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 same month, rapid intensifier
Opal (1995) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier
Flossy (1956) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 same month, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL101926 (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Galveston (1867) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031859 (1859) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021852 (1852) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL141916 (1916) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031912 (1912) peak 0 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 same month, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031904 (1904) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL071894 (1894) peak 2 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011885 (1885) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL111880 (1880) peak 0 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Twin Key West (II) (1870) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031911 (1911) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL011886 (1886) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041877 (1877) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)

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The other direction: storms whose tracks and traits share the least with Irma, for calibration.

5Labor Day 1935 score 4.8 | same month, same peak category, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943) 4Donna 1960 score 6.7 | same month, category within 1, atlantic approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967) 4AL051910 1910 score 1.4 | adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)

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How matches are scored

Scoring weighs month (2), peak category (2), approach side (2), and ENSO phase (1), plus an optional point for rapid intensifiers; each match explains exactly which traits it shares.

Pick at least one trait above to search. Example scenario: October, Category 4, Gulf approach, Neutral phase; three of the last five Gulf-side October majors will look uncomfortably familiar.

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