Hurricane Intelligence Florida
Hurricane Intelligence Florida: Florida impacts and ENSO, 1851 to present. A JnGmedia property.

Fingerprint matching | 128 storms | 1851-2025

Analog Finder

Two ways in: compare a real storm's track against history, or describe a hypothetical scenario. Analogs are context, never forecasts.

Compare a Real Storm's Track

Pick a storm to see which historical storms score highest for similarity of path.

How matches are scored

Matches are scored two genuinely different ways: how close the tracks actually ran to each other near Florida, and how each storm handled the Florida Straits/Cuba shelf on approach — a narrow, shallow area that tends to interrupt intensification and produce more erratic short-term heading changes than the deep open Gulf or Atlantic. Both scores show separately on every card, so the ranking is never a black box.

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Comparing to

AL111909 (1909)

peak 3 · FL impact 3.

Pre-ONI 3FL impact Major Hurricane (Cat 3+) Rapid Intensification
Formed
1909-10-06
Dissipated
1909-10-13
Peak wind
105 kt
Lifetime category
3
Min pressure
957 mb (lifetime)
Florida date
1909-10-11
Approach
gulf
FL regions
SW3 SE3
Center landfall
yes (1)
ENSO (ASO ONI)
pre-1950, no ONI
Peak surge (FL)
none exists for this era

Surge: no curated record, and none is likely to exist. Reliable landfall-zone surge observation generally predates neither the modern gauge network nor NHC Tropical Cyclone Reports for storms of this era; surge comparisons on this site skew modern as a result (disclosed on the methodology page).

Top 6 Top 20 All matches
Every storm since 1851 is included -- tap for how older matches are weighted

Storms before 1968 (radar/satellite) rank lower by a continuous confidence discount, not a hard cutoff: 1944-1967 (aircraft reconnaissance) counts at 75% of its raw match strength, 1911-1943 (station data + ship reports) at 50%, and pre-1911 (ship reports and land stations only) at 30% -- illustrative weights, not a published figure, matching the same four eras disclosed on the Zone Lab. A strong enough old match can still surface; look for "era confidence: N%" in that card's reasons.

Ranked by near-Florida path first (how close the two tracks actually ran to each other once near the state), then by Straits/Cuba approach (did each handle the shallow shelf the same way on the way in), then by trait match. These answer genuinely different questions -- a storm can wobble identically on approach and still land 300 miles apart, or vice versa -- so they are shown separately, never blended into one number.

Showing 124 matches out of every candidate that scored above zero in this range -- watch the near-Florida number taper toward the bottom of the list; that decay is the ranking actually working, not an artifact.

  • AL111909 (1909)
  • AL041896 (1896)
  • Florida Straits corridor

Track colors below are always: teal = AL111909, orange = the comparison storm named in each card -- shaded darker where that storm was stronger at that point, lighter where it was weaker, so intensity along the path reads without losing track of which line is which. On desktop these show as compact thumbnails, three per row; being vector maps they stay crisp at any size. Click a storm's name to open its own full-size record and track.

View AL111909 and these matches in the Zone Lab tool

View these storms on the Track Map

AL041896 (1896) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 1.5 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Georges (1998) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 1.4 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle
Cleo (1964) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 1.2 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Charley (2004) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 1.2 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle
AL061906 (1906) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 1.2 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041894 (1894) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 1.1 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Donna (1960) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 1 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL011896 (1896) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 1 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Isbell (1964) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 1 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same month, same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL041915 (1915) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL051876 (1876) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 same month, same peak category, similar Florida Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Ian (2022) peak 5 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble
Katrina (2005) peak 5 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble
AL021886 (1886) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Florence (1953) peak 3 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 4.3 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL021899 (1899) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Gladys (1968) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble
Ivan (2004) peak 5 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.8 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle
AL041917 (1917) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.8 of 2 · trait match 2.1 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Agnes (1972) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.8 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 gulf approach, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble
AL051924 (1924) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.8 of 2 · trait match 1.1 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Hermine (2016) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.8 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble
Middle Florida (1852) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.8 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
David (1979) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.8 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle
King (1950) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.8 of 2 · trait match 2.8 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Michael (2018) peak 5 · FL impact 5 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble
AL081948 (1948) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 2.1 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL031932 (1932) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match -0.4 of 8 similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Southeastern States (1856) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Debby (2024) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.6 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 gulf approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle
Inez (1966) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.6 of 2 · trait match 2.1 of 8 same month, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL091945 (1945) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.6 of 2 · trait match 1.3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL051873 (1873) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.6 of 2 · trait match 1.7 of 8 same month, same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Floyd (1987) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 same month, gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits wobble
AL101926 (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match 1.8 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Dennis (2005) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle
Great Middle Florida (1851) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL101924 (1924) peak 5 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match 2.3 of 8 same month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Andrew (1992) peak 5 · FL impact 5 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble
AL041886 (1886) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Key West (1861) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match 0.1 of 8 rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL131944 (1944) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match 4.4 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL051941 (1941) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 2.3 of 8 same month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL061946 (1946) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 4.4 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Alma (1966) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 3.7 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Twin Key West (I) (1870) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 1.3 of 8 same month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL091947 (1947) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 3.7 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits wobble, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Tampa Bay (1921) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match 2.9 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Elena (1985) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle
AL081906 (1906) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match 1.4 of 8 same month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Irma (2017) peak 5 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier
AL071865 (1865) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 1.4 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Kate (1985) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier
AL021929 (1929) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL021919 (1919) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 2.5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Betsy (1965) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 2.2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL051878 (1878) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 0.8 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Idalia (2023) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier
AL061882 (1882) peak 4 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 1.8 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Great Mobile (1852) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Baker (1950) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL051936 (1936) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 category within 1, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Opal (1995) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier
Eloise (1975) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier
Helene (2024) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier
Milton (2024) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier
Wilma (2005) peak 5 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier
Earl (1998) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier
Rita (2005) peak 5 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier
Jeanne (2004) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, rapid intensifier
Irene (1999) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier
Hazel (1953) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.8 of 8 same month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Easy (1950) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.8 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL091948 (1948) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.8 of 8 same month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Matthew (2016) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 same month, rapid intensifier
Frances (2004) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier
Flossy (1956) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL011945 (1945) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL141916 (1916) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL041947 (1947) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Sally (2020) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1
Erin (1995) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier
AL021916 (1916) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL051910 (1910) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.8 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL071888 (1888) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.8 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041877 (1877) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.8 of 8 same month, same peak category, gulf approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Dora (1964) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL021949 (1949) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL031912 (1912) peak 0 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031911 (1911) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL021882 (1882) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Galveston (1867) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 same month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL081859 (1859) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 same month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011886 (1886) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL061874 (1874) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Great Carolina (1854) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Labor Day (1935) peak 5 · FL impact 5 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL071935 (1935) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL111933 (1933) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL011928 (1928) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Lake Okeechobee (1928) peak 5 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL011926 (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Great Miami (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL071898 (1898) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 same month, category within 1, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL071894 (1894) peak 2 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 same month, category within 1, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031888 (1888) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 same peak category, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041887 (1887) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021877 (1877) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031873 (1873) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL061871 (1871) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031904 (1904) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 same month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031903 (1903) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Sea Islands (1893) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 same peak category, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031891 (1891) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 same peak category, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL111880 (1880) peak 0 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 same month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031871 (1871) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 same peak category, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041871 (1871) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 same peak category, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Twin Key West (II) (1870) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 same month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL051933 (1933) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL021906 (1906) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 category within 1, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011898 (1898) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041880 (1880) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 category within 1, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031859 (1859) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021852 (1852) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)

View AL111909 and these matches in the Zone Lab tool

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Show the LEAST similar tracks instead

The other direction: storms whose tracks and traits share the least with AL111909, for calibration.

3AL041896 1896 score 2 | adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911) 4Georges 1998 score 4.4 | adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle 4Cleo 1964 score 2.4 | category within 1, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)

Describe a Hypothetical Scenario

Pick the traits you're curious about, and we'll find historical storms that match.

How matches are scored

Scoring weighs month (2), peak category (2), approach side (2), and ENSO phase (1), plus an optional point for rapid intensifiers; each match explains exactly which traits it shares.

Pick at least one trait above to search. Example scenario: October, Category 4, Gulf approach, Neutral phase; three of the last five Gulf-side October majors will look uncomfortably familiar.

Wondering about a storm active right now? The home page shows the latest NHC observations with their historical analogs.

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