Hurricane Intelligence Florida
Hurricane Intelligence Florida: Florida impacts and ENSO, 1851 to present. A JnGmedia property.

Fingerprint matching | 128 storms | 1851-2025

Analog Finder

Two ways in: compare a real storm's track against history, or describe a hypothetical scenario. Analogs are context, never forecasts.

Compare a Real Storm's Track

Pick a storm to see which historical storms score highest for similarity of path.

How matches are scored

Matches are scored two genuinely different ways: how close the tracks actually ran to each other near Florida, and how each storm handled the Florida Straits/Cuba shelf on approach — a narrow, shallow area that tends to interrupt intensification and produce more erratic short-term heading changes than the deep open Gulf or Atlantic. Both scores show separately on every card, so the ranking is never a black box.

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Comparing to

Helene (2024)

peak 4 · FL impact 4.

Neutral 4FL impact Major Hurricane (Cat 3+) Rapid Intensification
Formed
2024-09-23
Dissipated
2024-09-28
Peak wind
120 kt
Lifetime category
4
Min pressure
939 mb (lifetime)
Florida date
2024-09-27
Approach
gulf
FL regions
NW4
Center landfall
yes (1)
ENSO (ASO ONI)
-0.17
Peak surge (FL)
16 ft (Keaton Beach to south of Steinhatchee)

Surge: inundation above ground level, 12-16 ft across the landfall zone. Destroyed roughly 80 percent of buildings in Keaton Beach and Steinhatchee; record inundation at Cedar Key (9.3 ft). Source: NHC Tropical Cyclone Report.

Top 6 Top 20 All matches
Every storm since 1851 is included -- tap for how older matches are weighted

Storms before 1968 (radar/satellite) rank lower by a continuous confidence discount, not a hard cutoff: 1944-1967 (aircraft reconnaissance) counts at 75% of its raw match strength, 1911-1943 (station data + ship reports) at 50%, and pre-1911 (ship reports and land stations only) at 30% -- illustrative weights, not a published figure, matching the same four eras disclosed on the Zone Lab. A strong enough old match can still surface; look for "era confidence: N%" in that card's reasons.

Ranked by near-Florida path first (how close the two tracks actually ran to each other once near the state), then by Straits/Cuba approach (did each handle the shallow shelf the same way on the way in), then by trait match. These answer genuinely different questions -- a storm can wobble identically on approach and still land 300 miles apart, or vice versa -- so they are shown separately, never blended into one number.

Showing 126 matches out of every candidate that scored above zero in this range -- watch the near-Florida number taper toward the bottom of the list; that decay is the ranking actually working, not an artifact.

  • Helene (2024)
  • Idalia (2023)
  • Florida Straits corridor

Track colors below are always: teal = Helene, orange = the comparison storm named in each card -- shaded darker where that storm was stronger at that point, lighter where it was weaker, so intensity along the path reads without losing track of which line is which. On desktop these show as compact thumbnails, three per row; being vector maps they stay crisp at any size. Click a storm's name to open its own full-size record and track.

View Helene and these matches in the Zone Lab tool

View these storms on the Track Map

Idalia (2023) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida
AL021886 (1886) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.5 of 8 gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Debby (2024) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida
Middle Florida (1852) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.2 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Hermine (2016) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same month, gulf approach, same ENSO phase, ran very close to the same path across Florida
AL061882 (1882) peak 4 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.8 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041896 (1896) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL061874 (1874) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 same month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Agnes (1972) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 gulf approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida
Alma (1966) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.4 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL031873 (1873) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 same month, gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL051924 (1924) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.4 of 8 same month, gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Elena (1985) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 7 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida
AL041915 (1915) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.9 of 8 same month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL071888 (1888) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL061871 (1871) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 same month, gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Kate (1985) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida
Michael (2018) peak 5 · FL impact 5 near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida
Tampa Bay (1921) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.4 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Gladys (1968) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, same ENSO phase, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL011945 (1945) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Great Middle Florida (1851) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Southeastern States (1856) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL081859 (1859) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Easy (1950) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4.2 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, same ENSO phase, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL041886 (1886) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.2 of 8 gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011896 (1896) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021899 (1899) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.4 of 8 rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Dora (1964) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.8 of 8 same month, same peak category, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Milton (2024) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Georges (1998) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL061946 (1946) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.8 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL111933 (1933) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 same month, same peak category, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL041877 (1877) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL071935 (1935) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.5 of 8 took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Dennis (2005) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL041917 (1917) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.1 of 8 same month, same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Key West (1861) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041871 (1871) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Frances (2004) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL011898 (1898) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Jeanne (2004) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL031903 (1903) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 same month, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Florence (1953) peak 3 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4.3 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL051941 (1941) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.1 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL011928 (1928) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL021929 (1929) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.1 of 8 same month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Labor Day (1935) peak 5 · FL impact 5 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.6 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL021877 (1877) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 same month, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041880 (1880) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.2 of 8 adjacent month, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Great Mobile (1852) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Great Miami (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.7 of 8 same month, same peak category, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL061906 (1906) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL131944 (1944) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4.3 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL051910 (1910) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.3 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021939 (1939) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 adjacent month, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL051933 (1933) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Irma (2017) peak 5 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same month, category within 1, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Hazel (1953) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.8 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Erin (1995) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL051936 (1936) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.3 of 8 took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031932 (1932) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 adjacent month, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031888 (1888) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL051878 (1878) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 same month, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041887 (1887) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021949 (1949) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.9 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Sally (2020) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 same month, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL021882 (1882) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.1 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Ivan (2004) peak 5 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL041947 (1947) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.6 of 8 same month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL021919 (1919) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.2 of 8 same month, same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Lake Okeechobee (1928) peak 5 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.7 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL081906 (1906) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Rita (2005) peak 5 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 7 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL091947 (1947) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.1 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Charley (2004) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL031871 (1871) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Earl (1998) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
King (1950) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.6 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Katrina (2005) peak 5 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL031891 (1891) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021916 (1916) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.3 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL051873 (1873) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011915 (1915) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL011926 (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.3 of 8 same peak category, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Eloise (1975) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Andrew (1992) peak 5 · FL impact 5 near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier
AL041894 (1894) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Ian (2022) peak 5 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier
Betsy (1965) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.7 of 8 same month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Flossy (1956) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4.4 of 8 same month, gulf approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL091945 (1945) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 same month, same peak category, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Wilma (2005) peak 5 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier
Donna (1960) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4.5 of 8 same month, same peak category, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL071898 (1898) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.8 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL101924 (1924) peak 5 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Cleo (1964) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Opal (1995) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier
David (1979) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same month, category within 1, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier
Matthew (2016) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier
Isbell (1964) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.8 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Baker (1950) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.8 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL081948 (1948) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.8 of 8 same month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Floyd (1987) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach
Inez (1966) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL091948 (1948) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Irene (1999) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier
AL101926 (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL141916 (1916) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031912 (1912) peak 0 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 same month, gulf approach, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031911 (1911) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL111909 (1909) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Great Carolina (1854) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011886 (1886) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Twin Key West (I) (1870) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Galveston (1867) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL071865 (1865) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Sea Islands (1893) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL051876 (1876) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031859 (1859) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 same month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021852 (1852) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 same month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031904 (1904) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL071894 (1894) peak 2 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011885 (1885) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL111880 (1880) peak 0 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Twin Key West (II) (1870) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)

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The other direction: storms whose tracks and traits share the least with Helene, for calibration.

4Idalia 2023 score 7.7 | adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida 2AL021886 1886 score 1.1 | gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911) 1Debby 2024 score 6.6 | adjacent month, gulf approach, same ENSO phase, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida

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How matches are scored

Scoring weighs month (2), peak category (2), approach side (2), and ENSO phase (1), plus an optional point for rapid intensifiers; each match explains exactly which traits it shares.

Pick at least one trait above to search. Example scenario: October, Category 4, Gulf approach, Neutral phase; three of the last five Gulf-side October majors will look uncomfortably familiar.

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