Hurricane Intelligence Florida
Hurricane Intelligence Florida: Florida impacts and ENSO, 1851 to present. A JnGmedia property.

Fingerprint matching | 128 storms | 1851-2025

Analog Finder

Two ways in: compare a real storm's track against history, or describe a hypothetical scenario. Analogs are context, never forecasts.

Compare a Real Storm's Track

Pick a storm to see which historical storms score highest for similarity of path.

How matches are scored

Matches are scored two genuinely different ways: how close the tracks actually ran to each other near Florida, and how each storm handled the Florida Straits/Cuba shelf on approach — a narrow, shallow area that tends to interrupt intensification and produce more erratic short-term heading changes than the deep open Gulf or Atlantic. Both scores show separately on every card, so the ranking is never a black box.

clear

Comparing to

AL081906 (1906)

peak 3 · FL impact 3.

Pre-ONI 3FL impact Cross-Peninsula Track Major Hurricane (Cat 3+) Rapid Intensification
Formed
1906-10-08
Dissipated
1906-10-23
Peak wind
105 kt
Lifetime category
3
Min pressure
953 mb (lifetime)
Florida date
1906-10-18
Approach
atlantic
FL regions
SW3 SE3
Center landfall
yes (3)
ENSO (ASO ONI)
pre-1950, no ONI
Peak surge (FL)
none exists for this era

Surge: no curated record, and none is likely to exist. Reliable landfall-zone surge observation generally predates neither the modern gauge network nor NHC Tropical Cyclone Reports for storms of this era; surge comparisons on this site skew modern as a result (disclosed on the methodology page).

Top 6 Top 20 All matches
Every storm since 1851 is included -- tap for how older matches are weighted

Storms before 1968 (radar/satellite) rank lower by a continuous confidence discount, not a hard cutoff: 1944-1967 (aircraft reconnaissance) counts at 75% of its raw match strength, 1911-1943 (station data + ship reports) at 50%, and pre-1911 (ship reports and land stations only) at 30% -- illustrative weights, not a published figure, matching the same four eras disclosed on the Zone Lab. A strong enough old match can still surface; look for "era confidence: N%" in that card's reasons.

Ranked by near-Florida path first (how close the two tracks actually ran to each other once near the state), then by Straits/Cuba approach (did each handle the shallow shelf the same way on the way in), then by trait match. These answer genuinely different questions -- a storm can wobble identically on approach and still land 300 miles apart, or vice versa -- so they are shown separately, never blended into one number.

Showing 127 matches out of every candidate that scored above zero in this range -- watch the near-Florida number taper toward the bottom of the list; that decay is the ranking actually working, not an artifact.

  • AL081906 (1906)
  • AL051910 (1910)
  • Florida Straits corridor

Track colors below are always: teal = AL081906, orange = the comparison storm named in each card -- shaded darker where that storm was stronger at that point, lighter where it was weaker, so intensity along the path reads without losing track of which line is which. On desktop these show as compact thumbnails, three per row; being vector maps they stay crisp at any size. Click a storm's name to open its own full-size record and track.

View AL081906 and these matches in the Zone Lab tool

View these storms on the Track Map

AL051910 (1910) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041894 (1894) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Donna (1960) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 1.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL091945 (1945) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match 2.5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, somewhat similar Straits wobble, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Charley (2004) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 1.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida
AL051878 (1878) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL131944 (1944) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.6 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Ian (2022) peak 5 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, ran very close to the same path across Florida
Irma (2017) peak 5 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, ran very close to the same path across Florida
Cleo (1964) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.6 of 8 category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Easy (1950) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.9 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Lake Okeechobee (1928) peak 5 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.3 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL061946 (1946) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 2.5 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
King (1950) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4.2 of 8 same month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL041886 (1886) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match -1.4 of 8 similar Florida Straits wobble, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Labor Day (1935) peak 5 · FL impact 5 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0.6 of 2 · trait match 1.1 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031871 (1871) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 same peak category, atlantic approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Irene (1999) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 same month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida
AL051873 (1873) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0.6 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 same month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Gladys (1968) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 same month, category within 1, ran very close to the same path across Florida
AL081948 (1948) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL051876 (1876) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 same month, same peak category, atlantic approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021949 (1949) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.7 of 8 category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL101924 (1924) peak 5 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 same month, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Milton (2024) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 same month, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Hazel (1953) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 same month, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
David (1979) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Tampa Bay (1921) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Wilma (2005) peak 5 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 same month, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL111933 (1933) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Katrina (2005) peak 5 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Jeanne (2004) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL011915 (1915) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL091947 (1947) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 1 of 2 · trait match 1.8 of 8 same month, category within 1, similar Florida Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL011926 (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Alma (1966) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 same peak category, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Isbell (1964) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match 3.5 of 8 same month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL061882 (1882) peak 4 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Inez (1966) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.5 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL071865 (1865) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 same month, category within 1, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041871 (1871) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 same peak category, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL051941 (1941) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 2.6 of 8 same month, same peak category, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL021906 (1906) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 category within 1, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Debby (2024) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL011928 (1928) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Frances (2004) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL031891 (1891) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 same peak category, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021899 (1899) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Twin Key West (I) (1870) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 same month, same peak category, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL051933 (1933) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.1 of 8 atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL041896 (1896) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL091948 (1948) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5.1 of 8 same month, same peak category, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Ivan (2004) peak 5 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Georges (1998) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0.6 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL031903 (1903) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041880 (1880) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 category within 1, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Andrew (1992) peak 5 · FL impact 5 near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL021929 (1929) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.1 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL041947 (1947) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.6 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL031888 (1888) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 same peak category, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021886 (1886) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.2 of 8 category within 1, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021919 (1919) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL011945 (1945) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.3 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL011898 (1898) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL061874 (1874) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.1 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Betsy (1965) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.6 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Matthew (2016) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Floyd (1987) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 same month, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Key West (1861) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031932 (1932) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Sea Islands (1893) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 same peak category, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL061871 (1871) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.2 of 8 adjacent month, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Idalia (2023) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL071888 (1888) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.8 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021939 (1939) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Dora (1964) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.8 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL051936 (1936) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 category within 1, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Great Miami (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.7 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL081859 (1859) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 same month, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL071935 (1935) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.7 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Helene (2024) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Great Carolina (1854) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.4 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Sally (2020) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Erin (1995) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL041915 (1915) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Elena (1985) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL051924 (1924) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL071898 (1898) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.3 of 8 same month, category within 1, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Great Mobile (1852) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 same peak category, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Rita (2005) peak 5 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier
Dennis (2005) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier
Kate (1985) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, rapid intensifier
Great Middle Florida (1851) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 same peak category, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Middle Florida (1852) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.8 of 8 same month, category within 1, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Hermine (2016) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 adjacent month, somewhat similar Straits wobble
AL011896 (1896) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Agnes (1972) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.8 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle
AL061906 (1906) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, somewhat similar Straits wobble, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL111909 (1909) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match 1.4 of 8 same month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Opal (1995) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier
Eloise (1975) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, rapid intensifier
Michael (2018) peak 5 · FL impact 5 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 same month, rapid intensifier
Earl (1998) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier
Florence (1953) peak 3 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL101926 (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 same month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Galveston (1867) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.1 of 8 same month, same peak category, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL141916 (1916) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Flossy (1956) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Baker (1950) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL041917 (1917) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL071894 (1894) peak 2 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 same month, category within 1, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031904 (1904) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL111880 (1880) peak 0 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041877 (1877) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 same month, same peak category, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Twin Key West (II) (1870) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021916 (1916) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 same peak category, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL021882 (1882) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031859 (1859) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021852 (1852) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011886 (1886) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011885 (1885) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Southeastern States (1856) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 same peak category, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031912 (1912) peak 0 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031911 (1911) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 category within 1, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL041887 (1887) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 category within 1, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021877 (1877) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031873 (1873) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)

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The other direction: storms whose tracks and traits share the least with AL081906, for calibration.

4AL051910 1910 score 1.7 | same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911) 3AL041894 1894 score 2.4 | adjacent month, same peak category, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911) 4Donna 1960 score 5 | adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)

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