Hurricane Intelligence Florida
Hurricane Intelligence Florida: Florida impacts and ENSO, 1851 to present. A JnGmedia property.

Fingerprint matching | 128 storms | 1851-2025

Analog Finder

Two ways in: compare a real storm's track against history, or describe a hypothetical scenario. Analogs are context, never forecasts.

Compare a Real Storm's Track

Pick a storm to see which historical storms score highest for similarity of path.

How matches are scored

Matches are scored two genuinely different ways: how close the tracks actually ran to each other near Florida, and how each storm handled the Florida Straits/Cuba shelf on approach — a narrow, shallow area that tends to interrupt intensification and produce more erratic short-term heading changes than the deep open Gulf or Atlantic. Both scores show separately on every card, so the ranking is never a black box.

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Comparing to

AL051878 (1878)

peak 2 · FL impact 2.

Pre-ONI 2FL impact Rapid Intensification
Formed
1878-09-01
Dissipated
1878-09-13
Peak wind
90 kt
Lifetime category
2
Min pressure
970 mb (lifetime)
Florida date
1878-09-07
Approach
atlantic
FL regions
NW2 SW2 NE1
Center landfall
yes (3)
ENSO (ASO ONI)
pre-1950, no ONI
Peak surge (FL)
none exists for this era

Surge: no curated record, and none is likely to exist. Reliable landfall-zone surge observation generally predates neither the modern gauge network nor NHC Tropical Cyclone Reports for storms of this era; surge comparisons on this site skew modern as a result (disclosed on the methodology page).

Top 6 Top 20 All matches
Every storm since 1851 is included -- tap for how older matches are weighted

Storms before 1968 (radar/satellite) rank lower by a continuous confidence discount, not a hard cutoff: 1944-1967 (aircraft reconnaissance) counts at 75% of its raw match strength, 1911-1943 (station data + ship reports) at 50%, and pre-1911 (ship reports and land stations only) at 30% -- illustrative weights, not a published figure, matching the same four eras disclosed on the Zone Lab. A strong enough old match can still surface; look for "era confidence: N%" in that card's reasons.

Ranked by near-Florida path first (how close the two tracks actually ran to each other once near the state), then by Straits/Cuba approach (did each handle the shallow shelf the same way on the way in), then by trait match. These answer genuinely different questions -- a storm can wobble identically on approach and still land 300 miles apart, or vice versa -- so they are shown separately, never blended into one number.

Showing 127 matches out of every candidate that scored above zero in this range -- watch the near-Florida number taper toward the bottom of the list; that decay is the ranking actually working, not an artifact.

  • AL051878 (1878)
  • Donna (1960)
  • Florida Straits corridor

Track colors below are always: teal = AL051878, orange = the comparison storm named in each card -- shaded darker where that storm was stronger at that point, lighter where it was weaker, so intensity along the path reads without losing track of which line is which. On desktop these show as compact thumbnails, three per row; being vector maps they stay crisp at any size. Click a storm's name to open its own full-size record and track.

View AL051878 and these matches in the Zone Lab tool

View these storms on the Track Map

Donna (1960) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 1.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match 3.2 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Easy (1950) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match 1.7 of 8 same month, category within 1, somewhat similar Straits wobble, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL091945 (1945) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.6 of 2 · Straits approach 1.3 of 2 · trait match 2.3 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Labor Day (1935) peak 5 · FL impact 5 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.6 of 2 · Straits approach 1.1 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL081906 (1906) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041894 (1894) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 0.1 of 8 same month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Irma (2017) peak 5 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 1.3 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida
AL051910 (1910) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match -0.8 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Lake Okeechobee (1928) peak 5 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.8 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL131944 (1944) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.1 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL041886 (1886) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 1.3 of 2 · trait match -1.6 of 8 category within 1, somewhat similar Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Charley (2004) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida
Gladys (1968) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, ran very close to the same path across Florida
AL061946 (1946) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.7 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Cleo (1964) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 2.7 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL031871 (1871) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021899 (1899) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 same peak category, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
King (1950) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.7 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL021949 (1949) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.7 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL051941 (1941) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 1.1 of 2 · trait match 1.3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL111933 (1933) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.4 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Ian (2022) peak 5 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 same month, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida
Jeanne (2004) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 same month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL031903 (1903) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 same month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Alma (1966) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Tampa Bay (1921) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Frances (2004) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL011928 (1928) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.4 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL041871 (1871) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL061882 (1882) peak 4 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.2 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL081948 (1948) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.5 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL051933 (1933) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Debby (2024) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.8 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL011898 (1898) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.8 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021929 (1929) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 1.2 of 2 · trait match 1.4 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Great Miami (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031888 (1888) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Irene (1999) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
David (1979) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL041947 (1947) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.5 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Milton (2024) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL051876 (1876) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL051873 (1873) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011945 (1945) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 same peak category, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL021939 (1939) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL011926 (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL041880 (1880) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.8 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL051936 (1936) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 1.1 of 8 same peak category, atlantic approach, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL061871 (1871) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 same month, category within 1, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031932 (1932) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match 1.3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Hazel (1953) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL011915 (1915) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031891 (1891) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL071888 (1888) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL061874 (1874) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041896 (1896) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 0.1 of 8 same month, category within 1, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Erin (1995) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL081859 (1859) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL071935 (1935) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 same peak category, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Sally (2020) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 same month, same peak category, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL091947 (1947) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, somewhat similar Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL101924 (1924) peak 5 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Georges (1998) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Isbell (1964) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.1 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL071865 (1865) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Idalia (2023) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Andrew (1992) peak 5 · FL impact 5 near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL021886 (1886) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.1 of 8 same peak category, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Elena (1985) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL021906 (1906) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 same peak category, atlantic approach, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Wilma (2005) peak 5 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Matthew (2016) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Dora (1964) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.8 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Sea Islands (1893) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Betsy (1965) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 3.6 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Helene (2024) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 same month, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Key West (1861) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Twin Key West (I) (1870) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 1.4 of 2 · trait match 0.1 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL091948 (1948) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.6 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Katrina (2005) peak 5 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Ivan (2004) peak 5 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 same month, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Great Carolina (1854) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 same month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Inez (1966) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match 2.8 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL041915 (1915) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.3 of 8 same month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL051924 (1924) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 same month, category within 1, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Floyd (1987) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1
Great Mobile (1852) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match -0.2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021919 (1919) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 1 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 same month, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL071898 (1898) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Middle Florida (1852) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Hermine (2016) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 same month, category within 1
Dennis (2005) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle
AL031873 (1873) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.8 of 8 same month, category within 1, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Kate (1985) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 1 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle
Great Middle Florida (1851) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Agnes (1972) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier
AL011896 (1896) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 0.8 of 8 same peak category, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Rita (2005) peak 5 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.6 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 same month, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle
Eloise (1975) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.6 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle
Southeastern States (1856) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.6 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Baker (1950) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 2.9 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL021882 (1882) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 same month, category within 1, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041917 (1917) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 1.4 of 8 same month, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Florence (1953) peak 3 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match 2.9 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL111909 (1909) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 0.8 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Earl (1998) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same month, same peak category, rapid intensifier
Flossy (1956) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Michael (2018) peak 5 · FL impact 5 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier
Opal (1995) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier
AL101926 (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL141916 (1916) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031911 (1911) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL071894 (1894) peak 2 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Galveston (1867) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031859 (1859) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 same month, category within 1, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021852 (1852) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 same month, category within 1, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031904 (1904) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011885 (1885) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Twin Key West (II) (1870) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031912 (1912) peak 0 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 same month, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL061906 (1906) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 same month, category within 1, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011886 (1886) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 same peak category, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL111880 (1880) peak 0 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021877 (1877) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 same month, category within 1, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041887 (1887) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 same peak category, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041877 (1877) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021916 (1916) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 category within 1, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)

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The other direction: storms whose tracks and traits share the least with AL051878, for calibration.

4Donna 1960 score 5.3 | same month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967) 3Easy 1950 score 3.8 | same month, category within 1, somewhat similar Straits wobble, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967) 4AL091945 1945 score 5.1 | same month, atlantic approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)

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