Hurricane Intelligence Florida
Hurricane Intelligence Florida: Florida impacts and ENSO, 1851 to present. A JnGmedia property.

Fingerprint matching | 128 storms | 1851-2025

Analog Finder

Two ways in: compare a real storm's track against history, or describe a hypothetical scenario. Analogs are context, never forecasts.

Compare a Real Storm's Track

Pick a storm to see which historical storms score highest for similarity of path.

How matches are scored

Matches are scored two genuinely different ways: how close the tracks actually ran to each other near Florida, and how each storm handled the Florida Straits/Cuba shelf on approach — a narrow, shallow area that tends to interrupt intensification and produce more erratic short-term heading changes than the deep open Gulf or Atlantic. Both scores show separately on every card, so the ranking is never a black box.

clear

Comparing to

Lake Okeechobee (1928)

peak 5 · FL impact 4.

Pre-ONI 4FL impact Cross-Peninsula Track Major Hurricane (Cat 3+) Rapid Intensification
Formed
1928-09-06
Dissipated
1928-09-21
Peak wind
140 kt
Lifetime category
5
Min pressure
929 mb (lifetime)
Florida date
1928-09-17
Approach
atlantic
FL regions
SE4 SW3 NE1 NW1
Center landfall
yes (1)
ENSO (ASO ONI)
pre-1950, no ONI
Peak surge (FL)
none exists for this era

Surge: no curated record, and none is likely to exist. Reliable landfall-zone surge observation generally predates neither the modern gauge network nor NHC Tropical Cyclone Reports for storms of this era; surge comparisons on this site skew modern as a result (disclosed on the methodology page).

Top 6 Top 20 All matches
Every storm since 1851 is included -- tap for how older matches are weighted

Storms before 1968 (radar/satellite) rank lower by a continuous confidence discount, not a hard cutoff: 1944-1967 (aircraft reconnaissance) counts at 75% of its raw match strength, 1911-1943 (station data + ship reports) at 50%, and pre-1911 (ship reports and land stations only) at 30% -- illustrative weights, not a published figure, matching the same four eras disclosed on the Zone Lab. A strong enough old match can still surface; look for "era confidence: N%" in that card's reasons.

Ranked by near-Florida path first (how close the two tracks actually ran to each other once near the state), then by Straits/Cuba approach (did each handle the shallow shelf the same way on the way in), then by trait match. These answer genuinely different questions -- a storm can wobble identically on approach and still land 300 miles apart, or vice versa -- so they are shown separately, never blended into one number.

Showing 125 matches out of every candidate that scored above zero in this range -- watch the near-Florida number taper toward the bottom of the list; that decay is the ranking actually working, not an artifact.

  • Lake Okeechobee (1928)
  • AL031871 (1871)
  • Florida Straits corridor

Track colors below are always: teal = Lake Okeechobee, orange = the comparison storm named in each card -- shaded darker where that storm was stronger at that point, lighter where it was weaker, so intensity along the path reads without losing track of which line is which. On desktop these show as compact thumbnails, three per row; being vector maps they stay crisp at any size. Click a storm's name to open its own full-size record and track.

View Lake Okeechobee and these matches in the Zone Lab tool

View these storms on the Track Map

AL031871 (1871) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.3 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021949 (1949) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Cleo (1964) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.4 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL091945 (1945) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.4 of 8 same month, category within 1, atlantic approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL051910 (1910) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
King (1950) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.4 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Jeanne (2004) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida
AL111933 (1933) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.8 of 8 same month, category within 1, atlantic approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
David (1979) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 7 of 8 same month, same peak category, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida
AL051878 (1878) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011915 (1915) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.8 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Easy (1950) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.1 of 8 same month, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL011926 (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.3 of 8 category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Frances (2004) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 same month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida
AL061946 (1946) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL081906 (1906) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011928 (1928) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.3 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL041871 (1871) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041894 (1894) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Charley (2004) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida
AL041886 (1886) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.9 of 8 ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Donna (1960) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4.2 of 8 same month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Irma (2017) peak 5 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 7 of 8 same month, same peak category, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida
AL131944 (1944) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.9 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Matthew (2016) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Sea Islands (1893) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.1 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011898 (1898) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Labor Day (1935) peak 5 · FL impact 5 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.9 of 8 same month, same peak category, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Great Carolina (1854) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041880 (1880) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.1 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Ian (2022) peak 5 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Dora (1964) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.5 of 8 same month, category within 1, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Tampa Bay (1921) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL061871 (1871) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.1 of 8 same month, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Gladys (1968) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 adjacent month, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL071898 (1898) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021939 (1939) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031903 (1903) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.8 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL051941 (1941) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Irene (1999) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL051933 (1933) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL051876 (1876) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Milton (2024) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Debby (2024) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL061882 (1882) peak 4 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL051873 (1873) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Alma (1966) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL071888 (1888) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041896 (1896) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 same month, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL081948 (1948) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4.3 of 8 same month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL021899 (1899) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Hazel (1953) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.3 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Erin (1995) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL041947 (1947) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4.3 of 8 same month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL061874 (1874) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 same month, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011945 (1945) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL071865 (1865) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.2 of 8 adjacent month, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031888 (1888) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.8 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL091947 (1947) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 adjacent month, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Idalia (2023) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL081859 (1859) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Isbell (1964) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.4 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL101924 (1924) peak 5 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.7 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031891 (1891) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021929 (1929) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.7 of 8 same month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Great Miami (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.2 of 8 same month, category within 1, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Helene (2024) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Wilma (2005) peak 5 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL031932 (1932) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.3 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL051936 (1936) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.8 of 8 atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL021886 (1886) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.3 of 8 took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021906 (1906) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Andrew (1992) peak 5 · FL impact 5 near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier
AL091948 (1948) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.9 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL031873 (1873) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 same month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Georges (1998) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 same month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier
AL021877 (1877) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 same month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Sally (2020) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 same month, atlantic approach
Elena (1985) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 same month, rapid intensifier
AL071935 (1935) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 atlantic approach, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Katrina (2005) peak 5 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier
Twin Key West (I) (1870) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.1 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Middle Florida (1852) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041915 (1915) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 same month, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Hermine (2016) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 same month
AL051924 (1924) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 same month, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Betsy (1965) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4.5 of 8 same month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Key West (1861) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Ivan (2004) peak 5 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same month, same peak category, rapid intensifier
Rita (2005) peak 5 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same month, same peak category, rapid intensifier
Inez (1966) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4.5 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Michael (2018) peak 5 · FL impact 5 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, rapid intensifier
Earl (1998) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 same month, rapid intensifier
Opal (1995) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier
Eloise (1975) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 same month, rapid intensifier
AL101926 (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Flossy (1956) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.3 of 8 same month, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Florence (1953) peak 3 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.3 of 8 same month, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Dennis (2005) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier
AL021919 (1919) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL041917 (1917) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Baker (1950) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Galveston (1867) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031859 (1859) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021852 (1852) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Floyd (1987) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 adjacent month
Kate (1985) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 rapid intensifier
Agnes (1972) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 rapid intensifier
AL141916 (1916) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031912 (1912) peak 0 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 same month, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031904 (1904) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL071894 (1894) peak 2 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011885 (1885) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL111880 (1880) peak 0 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Twin Key West (II) (1870) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL111909 (1909) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL061906 (1906) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 same month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021882 (1882) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 same month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031911 (1911) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL011896 (1896) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011886 (1886) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041877 (1877) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Southeastern States (1856) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Great Mobile (1852) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Great Middle Florida (1851) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)

View Lake Okeechobee and these matches in the Zone Lab tool

View these storms on the Track Map

Show the LEAST similar tracks instead

The other direction: storms whose tracks and traits share the least with Lake Okeechobee, for calibration.

3AL031871 1871 score 1.4 | adjacent month, atlantic approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911) 4AL021949 1949 score 5 | adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967) 4Cleo 1964 score 5 | adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)

Describe a Hypothetical Scenario

Pick the traits you're curious about, and we'll find historical storms that match.

How matches are scored

Scoring weighs month (2), peak category (2), approach side (2), and ENSO phase (1), plus an optional point for rapid intensifiers; each match explains exactly which traits it shares.

Pick at least one trait above to search. Example scenario: October, Category 4, Gulf approach, Neutral phase; three of the last five Gulf-side October majors will look uncomfortably familiar.

Wondering about a storm active right now? The home page shows the latest NHC observations with their historical analogs.

↑ Top