Hurricane Intelligence Florida
Hurricane Intelligence Florida: Florida impacts and ENSO, 1851 to present. A JnGmedia property.

Fingerprint matching | 128 storms | 1851-2025

Analog Finder

Two ways in: compare a real storm's track against history, or describe a hypothetical scenario. Analogs are context, never forecasts.

Compare a Real Storm's Track

Pick a storm to see which historical storms score highest for similarity of path.

How matches are scored

Matches are scored two genuinely different ways: how close the tracks actually ran to each other near Florida, and how each storm handled the Florida Straits/Cuba shelf on approach — a narrow, shallow area that tends to interrupt intensification and produce more erratic short-term heading changes than the deep open Gulf or Atlantic. Both scores show separately on every card, so the ranking is never a black box.

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Comparing to

AL021919 (1919)

peak 4 · FL impact 4.

Pre-ONI 4FL impact Major Hurricane (Cat 3+) Rapid Intensification
Formed
1919-09-02
Dissipated
1919-09-16
Peak wind
130 kt
Lifetime category
4
Min pressure
927 mb (lifetime)
Florida date
1919-09-10
Approach
gulf
FL regions
SW4 SE2
Center landfall
yes (1)
ENSO (ASO ONI)
pre-1950, no ONI
Peak surge (FL)
none exists for this era

Surge: no curated record, and none is likely to exist. Reliable landfall-zone surge observation generally predates neither the modern gauge network nor NHC Tropical Cyclone Reports for storms of this era; surge comparisons on this site skew modern as a result (disclosed on the methodology page).

Top 6 Top 20 All matches
Every storm since 1851 is included -- tap for how older matches are weighted

Storms before 1968 (radar/satellite) rank lower by a continuous confidence discount, not a hard cutoff: 1944-1967 (aircraft reconnaissance) counts at 75% of its raw match strength, 1911-1943 (station data + ship reports) at 50%, and pre-1911 (ship reports and land stations only) at 30% -- illustrative weights, not a published figure, matching the same four eras disclosed on the Zone Lab. A strong enough old match can still surface; look for "era confidence: N%" in that card's reasons.

Ranked by near-Florida path first (how close the two tracks actually ran to each other once near the state), then by Straits/Cuba approach (did each handle the shallow shelf the same way on the way in), then by trait match. These answer genuinely different questions -- a storm can wobble identically on approach and still land 300 miles apart, or vice versa -- so they are shown separately, never blended into one number.

Showing 127 matches out of every candidate that scored above zero in this range -- watch the near-Florida number taper toward the bottom of the list; that decay is the ranking actually working, not an artifact.

  • AL021919 (1919)
  • Ivan (2004)
  • Florida Straits corridor

Track colors below are always: teal = AL021919, orange = the comparison storm named in each card -- shaded darker where that storm was stronger at that point, lighter where it was weaker, so intensity along the path reads without losing track of which line is which. On desktop these show as compact thumbnails, three per row; being vector maps they stay crisp at any size. Click a storm's name to open its own full-size record and track.

View AL021919 and these matches in the Zone Lab tool

View these storms on the Track Map

Ivan (2004) peak 5 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida
Katrina (2005) peak 5 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida
Great Mobile (1852) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0.8 of 2 · trait match -0.4 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Betsy (1965) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match 3.3 of 8 same month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Rita (2005) peak 5 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 1 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida
Key West (1861) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0.8 of 2 · trait match -0.9 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Inez (1966) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 1.9 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Andrew (1992) peak 5 · FL impact 5 near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0.8 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida
AL071935 (1935) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match -0.8 of 8 somewhat similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Wilma (2005) peak 5 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL031891 (1891) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match -0.7 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Dennis (2005) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL101924 (1924) peak 5 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Hazel (1953) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.7 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Great Middle Florida (1851) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Floyd (1987) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Kate (1985) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.6 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL051873 (1873) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 1.2 of 2 · trait match -0.1 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Twin Key West (I) (1870) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Milton (2024) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL011896 (1896) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Isbell (1964) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 3.5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Georges (1998) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL091947 (1947) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 1.8 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Southeastern States (1856) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 1 of 2 · trait match -0.1 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL131944 (1944) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4.3 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Gladys (1968) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Elena (1985) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL041915 (1915) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.1 of 8 same month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031888 (1888) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match -0.2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Ian (2022) peak 5 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL031932 (1932) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.1 of 8 adjacent month, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL061906 (1906) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match 0.8 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021886 (1886) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021906 (1906) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match -1.1 of 8 similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Tampa Bay (1921) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.6 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Charley (2004) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL081948 (1948) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.6 of 8 same month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL041896 (1896) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL081859 (1859) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL081906 (1906) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match -0.2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Irene (1999) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL041947 (1947) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.6 of 8 same month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL071865 (1865) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021929 (1929) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0.6 of 2 · trait match 1.9 of 8 same month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Sally (2020) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 same month, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Agnes (1972) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 gulf approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL051933 (1933) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL051876 (1876) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.1 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL061946 (1946) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.8 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL051924 (1924) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.7 of 8 same month, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL041886 (1886) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 1.1 of 2 · trait match -0.7 of 8 gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Idalia (2023) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL061882 (1882) peak 4 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.3 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Michael (2018) peak 5 · FL impact 5 near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Donna (1960) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.6 of 8 same month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL041894 (1894) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL051936 (1936) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match -0.6 of 8 similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Debby (2024) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL051910 (1910) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.4 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL061874 (1874) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.1 of 8 same month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL091948 (1948) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.1 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Helene (2024) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 7 of 8 same month, same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Irma (2017) peak 5 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 1.7 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Labor Day (1935) peak 5 · FL impact 5 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 1.4 of 2 · trait match 1.1 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Alma (1966) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.9 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL041917 (1917) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.3 of 8 same month, same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL011945 (1945) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.1 of 8 gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Middle Florida (1852) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021916 (1916) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.3 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL021899 (1899) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL051941 (1941) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 1.5 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, similar Florida Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Easy (1950) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.7 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Great Miami (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.8 of 8 same month, same peak category, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL051878 (1878) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 1 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 same month, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Hermine (2016) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 same month, gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits wobble
AL071888 (1888) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL091945 (1945) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 2.8 of 8 same month, same peak category, similar Florida Straits wobble, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL031903 (1903) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.8 of 8 same month, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Florence (1953) peak 3 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4.5 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL041887 (1887) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 gulf approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Eloise (1975) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 1 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle
Baker (1950) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 2.8 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL021882 (1882) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL111909 (1909) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 1.4 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Opal (1995) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier
Frances (2004) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same month, same peak category, rapid intensifier
Earl (1998) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier
Jeanne (2004) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier
David (1979) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier
Flossy (1956) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.8 of 8 same month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Matthew (2016) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier
Cleo (1964) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Dora (1964) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 same month, same peak category, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
King (1950) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL021949 (1949) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Erin (1995) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier
AL111933 (1933) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 same month, same peak category, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Lake Okeechobee (1928) peak 5 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL101926 (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL141916 (1916) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031912 (1912) peak 0 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 same month, gulf approach, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL011926 (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 same peak category, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031911 (1911) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL021877 (1877) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 same month, gulf approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041877 (1877) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031873 (1873) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 same month, gulf approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL061871 (1871) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 same month, gulf approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Great Carolina (1854) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 same month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011928 (1928) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL071898 (1898) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011886 (1886) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Galveston (1867) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011898 (1898) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Sea Islands (1893) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031871 (1871) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041871 (1871) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031859 (1859) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 same month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021852 (1852) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 same month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021939 (1939) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL011915 (1915) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031904 (1904) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL071894 (1894) peak 2 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011885 (1885) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041880 (1880) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL111880 (1880) peak 0 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Twin Key West (II) (1870) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)

View AL021919 and these matches in the Zone Lab tool

View these storms on the Track Map

Show the LEAST similar tracks instead

The other direction: storms whose tracks and traits share the least with AL021919, for calibration.

5Ivan 2004 score 7.6 | same month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida 5Katrina 2005 score 4.6 | adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida 3Great Mobile 1852 score 1.9 | adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)

Describe a Hypothetical Scenario

Pick the traits you're curious about, and we'll find historical storms that match.

How matches are scored

Scoring weighs month (2), peak category (2), approach side (2), and ENSO phase (1), plus an optional point for rapid intensifiers; each match explains exactly which traits it shares.

Pick at least one trait above to search. Example scenario: October, Category 4, Gulf approach, Neutral phase; three of the last five Gulf-side October majors will look uncomfortably familiar.

Wondering about a storm active right now? The home page shows the latest NHC observations with their historical analogs.

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