Hurricane Intelligence Florida
Hurricane Intelligence Florida: Florida impacts and ENSO, 1851 to present. A JnGmedia property.

Fingerprint matching | 128 storms | 1851-2025

Analog Finder

Two ways in: compare a real storm's track against history, or describe a hypothetical scenario. Analogs are context, never forecasts.

Compare a Real Storm's Track

Pick a storm to see which historical storms score highest for similarity of path.

How matches are scored

Matches are scored two genuinely different ways: how close the tracks actually ran to each other near Florida, and how each storm handled the Florida Straits/Cuba shelf on approach — a narrow, shallow area that tends to interrupt intensification and produce more erratic short-term heading changes than the deep open Gulf or Atlantic. Both scores show separately on every card, so the ranking is never a black box.

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Comparing to

AL021882 (1882)

peak 3 · FL impact 3.

Pre-ONI 3FL impact Major Hurricane (Cat 3+)
Formed
1882-09-02
Dissipated
1882-09-13
Peak wind
110 kt
Lifetime category
3
Min pressure
949 mb (lifetime)
Florida date
1882-09-10
Approach
gulf
FL regions
NW3
Center landfall
yes (1)
ENSO (ASO ONI)
pre-1950, no ONI
Peak surge (FL)
none exists for this era

Surge: no curated record, and none is likely to exist. Reliable landfall-zone surge observation generally predates neither the modern gauge network nor NHC Tropical Cyclone Reports for storms of this era; surge comparisons on this site skew modern as a result (disclosed on the methodology page).

Top 6 Top 20 All matches
Every storm since 1851 is included -- tap for how older matches are weighted

Storms before 1968 (radar/satellite) rank lower by a continuous confidence discount, not a hard cutoff: 1944-1967 (aircraft reconnaissance) counts at 75% of its raw match strength, 1911-1943 (station data + ship reports) at 50%, and pre-1911 (ship reports and land stations only) at 30% -- illustrative weights, not a published figure, matching the same four eras disclosed on the Zone Lab. A strong enough old match can still surface; look for "era confidence: N%" in that card's reasons.

Ranked by near-Florida path first (how close the two tracks actually ran to each other once near the state), then by Straits/Cuba approach (did each handle the shallow shelf the same way on the way in), then by trait match. These answer genuinely different questions -- a storm can wobble identically on approach and still land 300 miles apart, or vice versa -- so they are shown separately, never blended into one number.

Showing 126 matches out of every candidate that scored above zero in this range -- watch the near-Florida number taper toward the bottom of the list; that decay is the ranking actually working, not an artifact.

  • AL021882 (1882)
  • AL041917 (1917)
  • Florida Straits corridor

Track colors below are always: teal = AL021882, orange = the comparison storm named in each card -- shaded darker where that storm was stronger at that point, lighter where it was weaker, so intensity along the path reads without losing track of which line is which. On desktop these show as compact thumbnails, three per row; being vector maps they stay crisp at any size. Click a storm's name to open its own full-size record and track.

View AL021882 and these matches in the Zone Lab tool

View these storms on the Track Map

AL041917 (1917) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 1.3 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL041887 (1887) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.2 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Florence (1953) peak 3 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4.1 of 8 same month, same peak category, gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Flossy (1956) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.7 of 8 same month, gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Southeastern States (1856) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0.8 of 2 · trait match 0.1 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Opal (1995) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Eloise (1975) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0.8 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 same month, same peak category, gulf approach, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL141916 (1916) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.4 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL021877 (1877) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 same month, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Michael (2018) peak 5 · FL impact 5 near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Earl (1998) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL011896 (1896) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.8 of 2 · trait match -0.4 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL051924 (1924) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 same month, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL041877 (1877) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.8 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Agnes (1972) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Dennis (2005) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Great Middle Florida (1851) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Hermine (2016) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 same month, gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Kate (1985) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Middle Florida (1852) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021916 (1916) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.6 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Elena (1985) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 same month, same peak category, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL041915 (1915) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.2 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL061906 (1906) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.3 of 8 same month, same peak category, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Georges (1998) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 same month, category within 1, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL031873 (1873) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.8 of 8 same month, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Erin (1995) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Helene (2024) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Great Miami (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.3 of 8 same month, category within 1, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL061874 (1874) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 same month, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021886 (1886) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021939 (1939) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Idalia (2023) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits wobble
Rita (2005) peak 5 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 1.4 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 same month, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle
AL011945 (1945) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.2 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL011898 (1898) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.1 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL051936 (1936) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 1 of 2 · trait match -0.1 of 8 category within 1, somewhat similar Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Sally (2020) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 same month, category within 1, similar Straits approach angle
Alma (1966) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 2.9 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits wobble, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Great Mobile (1852) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 1 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Dora (1964) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.2 of 8 same month, category within 1, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL041880 (1880) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Debby (2024) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits wobble
AL071888 (1888) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.1 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL061871 (1871) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.1 of 8 same month, gulf approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031903 (1903) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 same month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021929 (1929) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 1.3 of 8 same month, category within 1, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL021899 (1899) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match -0.1 of 8 category within 1, somewhat similar Straits wobble, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041896 (1896) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.7 of 8 same month, same peak category, gulf approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL061882 (1882) peak 4 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031932 (1932) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 adjacent month, similar Florida Straits wobble, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Ivan (2004) peak 5 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 same month, gulf approach
AL081859 (1859) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Baker (1950) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 1.5 of 2 · trait match 2.6 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Betsy (1965) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 1.2 of 2 · trait match 1.9 of 8 same month, category within 1, somewhat similar Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Andrew (1992) peak 5 · FL impact 5 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 1.1 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 adjacent month, similar Straits approach angle
AL031891 (1891) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 1.1 of 2 · trait match 0.1 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, similar Florida Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL051873 (1873) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 1 of 2 · trait match 0.8 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Labor Day (1935) peak 5 · FL impact 5 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 1 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 same month, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL021906 (1906) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 1 of 2 · trait match -0.4 of 8 category within 1, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Wilma (2005) peak 5 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 1 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble
AL021919 (1919) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 2.1 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL071935 (1935) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 0.1 of 8 category within 1, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Key West (1861) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match -0.2 of 8 adjacent month, somewhat similar Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL091948 (1948) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.6 of 2 · trait match 2.1 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, similar Florida Straits wobble, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL031888 (1888) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Tampa Bay (1921) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match 1.8 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits wobble, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
King (1950) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match 1.4 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, somewhat similar Straits wobble, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL051941 (1941) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match 1.3 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL071865 (1865) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits wobble, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Irma (2017) peak 5 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 same month, somewhat similar Straits approach angle
Cleo (1964) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match 1.4 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, somewhat similar Straits wobble, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL051878 (1878) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 same month, category within 1, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL061946 (1946) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 2.9 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits wobble, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Donna (1960) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 2.2 of 8 same month, category within 1, somewhat similar Straits wobble, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL131944 (1944) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits wobble, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL041894 (1894) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match 1.1 of 8 same month, same peak category, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Twin Key West (I) (1870) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 0.8 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL101924 (1924) peak 5 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 1.4 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL041886 (1886) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 gulf approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL101926 (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Charley (2004) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach
Floyd (1987) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach
Katrina (2005) peak 5 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 adjacent month
Easy (1950) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4.5 of 8 same month, same peak category, gulf approach, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Ian (2022) peak 5 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 same month, gulf approach
Jeanne (2004) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 same month, same peak category
Gladys (1968) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach
Isbell (1964) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.8 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Milton (2024) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach
Frances (2004) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 same month, category within 1
AL091947 (1947) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Hazel (1953) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.3 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL081948 (1948) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.3 of 8 same month, category within 1, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL041947 (1947) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.3 of 8 same month, category within 1, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL091945 (1945) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.3 of 8 same month, category within 1, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Irene (1999) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1
David (1979) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 same month
AL031912 (1912) peak 0 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 same month, gulf approach, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031911 (1911) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL021949 (1949) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL111933 (1933) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 same month, category within 1, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL111909 (1909) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL051910 (1910) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Great Carolina (1854) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 same month, same peak category, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Matthew (2016) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 adjacent month
AL011928 (1928) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Lake Okeechobee (1928) peak 5 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 same month, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL081906 (1906) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Sea Islands (1893) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011886 (1886) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL051876 (1876) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031871 (1871) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041871 (1871) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Galveston (1867) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Inez (1966) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.8 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL071898 (1898) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL071894 (1894) peak 2 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031859 (1859) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 same month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021852 (1852) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 same month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011926 (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 category within 1, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL011915 (1915) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031904 (1904) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011885 (1885) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL111880 (1880) peak 0 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Twin Key West (II) (1870) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)

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Show the LEAST similar tracks instead

The other direction: storms whose tracks and traits share the least with AL021882, for calibration.

4AL041917 1917 score 3.7 | same month, category within 1, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943) 2AL041887 1887 score 1.4 | category within 1, gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911) 3Florence 1953 score 5.6 | same month, same peak category, gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)

Describe a Hypothetical Scenario

Pick the traits you're curious about, and we'll find historical storms that match.

How matches are scored

Scoring weighs month (2), peak category (2), approach side (2), and ENSO phase (1), plus an optional point for rapid intensifiers; each match explains exactly which traits it shares.

Pick at least one trait above to search. Example scenario: October, Category 4, Gulf approach, Neutral phase; three of the last five Gulf-side October majors will look uncomfortably familiar.

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