Hurricane Intelligence Florida
Hurricane Intelligence Florida: Florida impacts and ENSO, 1851 to present. A JnGmedia property.

Fingerprint matching | 128 storms | 1851-2025

Analog Finder

Two ways in: compare a real storm's track against history, or describe a hypothetical scenario. Analogs are context, never forecasts.

Compare a Real Storm's Track

Pick a storm to see which historical storms score highest for similarity of path.

How matches are scored

Matches are scored two genuinely different ways: how close the tracks actually ran to each other near Florida, and how each storm handled the Florida Straits/Cuba shelf on approach — a narrow, shallow area that tends to interrupt intensification and produce more erratic short-term heading changes than the deep open Gulf or Atlantic. Both scores show separately on every card, so the ranking is never a black box.

clear

Comparing to

AL011945 (1945)

peak 2 · FL impact 1.

Pre-ONI 1FL impact Cross-Peninsula Track Rapid Intensification Match confidence: low
Formed
1945-06-20
Dissipated
1945-07-04
Peak wind
85 kt
Lifetime category
2
Min pressure
n/a
Florida date
1945-06-24
Approach
gulf
FL regions
NW1
Center landfall
yes (1)
ENSO (ASO ONI)
pre-1950, no ONI
Peak surge (FL)
none exists for this era

Surge: no curated record, and none is likely to exist. Reliable landfall-zone surge observation generally predates neither the modern gauge network nor NHC Tropical Cyclone Reports for storms of this era; surge comparisons on this site skew modern as a result (disclosed on the methodology page).

Top 6 Top 20 All matches
Every storm since 1851 is included -- tap for how older matches are weighted

Storms before 1968 (radar/satellite) rank lower by a continuous confidence discount, not a hard cutoff: 1944-1967 (aircraft reconnaissance) counts at 75% of its raw match strength, 1911-1943 (station data + ship reports) at 50%, and pre-1911 (ship reports and land stations only) at 30% -- illustrative weights, not a published figure, matching the same four eras disclosed on the Zone Lab. A strong enough old match can still surface; look for "era confidence: N%" in that card's reasons.

Ranked by near-Florida path first (how close the two tracks actually ran to each other once near the state), then by Straits/Cuba approach (did each handle the shallow shelf the same way on the way in), then by trait match. These answer genuinely different questions -- a storm can wobble identically on approach and still land 300 miles apart, or vice versa -- so they are shown separately, never blended into one number.

Showing 125 matches out of every candidate that scored above zero in this range -- watch the near-Florida number taper toward the bottom of the list; that decay is the ranking actually working, not an artifact.

  • AL011945 (1945)
  • AL071888 (1888)
  • Florida Straits corridor

Track colors below are always: teal = AL011945, orange = the comparison storm named in each card -- shaded darker where that storm was stronger at that point, lighter where it was weaker, so intensity along the path reads without losing track of which line is which. On desktop these show as compact thumbnails, three per row; being vector maps they stay crisp at any size. Click a storm's name to open its own full-size record and track.

View AL011945 and these matches in the Zone Lab tool

View these storms on the Track Map

AL071888 (1888) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL061871 (1871) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.2 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL061874 (1874) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Elena (1985) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida
Hermine (2016) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida
Middle Florida (1852) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Tampa Bay (1921) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 gulf approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Easy (1950) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.9 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Gladys (1968) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida
AL081859 (1859) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041886 (1886) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041896 (1896) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.1 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Helene (2024) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Michael (2018) peak 5 · FL impact 5 near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL071935 (1935) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 same peak category, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Idalia (2023) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL051924 (1924) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Kate (1985) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Southeastern States (1856) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.1 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL051933 (1933) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Debby (2024) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL061882 (1882) peak 4 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.1 of 8 gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Agnes (1972) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Great Middle Florida (1851) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Milton (2024) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL021886 (1886) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.1 of 8 same month, same peak category, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL051878 (1878) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 same peak category, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041877 (1877) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031873 (1873) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Georges (1998) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL031888 (1888) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011896 (1896) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL061946 (1946) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.5 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL041880 (1880) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 same peak category, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Erin (1995) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 same peak category, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL041915 (1915) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.1 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL061906 (1906) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Ivan (2004) peak 5 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Florence (1953) peak 3 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.8 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL041947 (1947) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL011928 (1928) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.1 of 8 same peak category, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Alma (1966) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4.3 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Sally (2020) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 same peak category, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Great Mobile (1852) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031932 (1932) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.1 of 8 category within 1, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL081906 (1906) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.1 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031903 (1903) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.1 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Frances (2004) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL051910 (1910) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Lake Okeechobee (1928) peak 5 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Dennis (2005) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Hazel (1953) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.8 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL131944 (1944) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.1 of 8 gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL021899 (1899) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL111933 (1933) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.3 of 8 took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Great Miami (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.3 of 8 took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL021939 (1939) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 category within 1, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031871 (1871) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.2 of 8 category within 1, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Charley (2004) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL011898 (1898) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.1 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Dora (1964) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.2 of 8 took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL051936 (1936) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Andrew (1992) peak 5 · FL impact 5 near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL021929 (1929) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL041887 (1887) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.1 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041871 (1871) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.1 of 8 category within 1, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Labor Day (1935) peak 5 · FL impact 5 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Ian (2022) peak 5 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL021916 (1916) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.7 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Katrina (2005) peak 5 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL051873 (1873) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.8 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Jeanne (2004) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL051941 (1941) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL041894 (1894) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Key West (1861) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Betsy (1965) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL041917 (1917) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.3 of 8 gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL021949 (1949) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL021919 (1919) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.3 of 8 gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031891 (1891) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 category within 1, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL091945 (1945) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.1 of 8 took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Rita (2005) peak 5 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 gulf approach, rapid intensifier, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Irma (2017) peak 5 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 rapid intensifier
Donna (1960) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL011915 (1915) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 category within 1, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL011926 (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.8 of 8 adjacent month, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Cleo (1964) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL021882 (1882) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Eloise (1975) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier
King (1950) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL021877 (1877) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.8 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Wilma (2005) peak 5 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 gulf approach, rapid intensifier
David (1979) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 rapid intensifier
Earl (1998) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier
AL101924 (1924) peak 5 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Matthew (2016) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 rapid intensifier
Baker (1950) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.8 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Irene (1999) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 same peak category, rapid intensifier
Opal (1995) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 gulf approach, rapid intensifier
Floyd (1987) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach
Isbell (1964) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Flossy (1956) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL091947 (1947) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL141916 (1916) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.5 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL011886 (1886) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.1 of 8 same month, same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031911 (1911) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL091948 (1948) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL111909 (1909) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021906 (1906) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 same month, same peak category, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL071865 (1865) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031912 (1912) peak 0 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 gulf approach, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Inez (1966) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.8 of 8 rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL081948 (1948) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.8 of 8 rapid intensifier, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL071894 (1894) peak 2 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 same peak category, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Twin Key West (I) (1870) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Galveston (1867) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Great Carolina (1854) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL101926 (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 rapid intensifier, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031904 (1904) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 category within 1, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Sea Islands (1893) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 category within 1, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011885 (1885) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 category within 1, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL051876 (1876) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 category within 1, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Twin Key West (II) (1870) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 category within 1, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031859 (1859) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 category within 1, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021852 (1852) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 category within 1, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)

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The other direction: storms whose tracks and traits share the least with AL011945, for calibration.

2AL071888 1888 score 2 | same peak category, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911) 1AL061871 1871 score 1.4 | category within 1, gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911) 1AL061874 1874 score 1.7 | category within 1, gulf approach, rapid intensifier, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)

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How matches are scored

Scoring weighs month (2), peak category (2), approach side (2), and ENSO phase (1), plus an optional point for rapid intensifiers; each match explains exactly which traits it shares.

Pick at least one trait above to search. Example scenario: October, Category 4, Gulf approach, Neutral phase; three of the last five Gulf-side October majors will look uncomfortably familiar.

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