Hurricane Intelligence Florida
Hurricane Intelligence Florida: Florida impacts and ENSO, 1851 to present. A JnGmedia property.

Fingerprint matching | 128 storms | 1851-2025

Analog Finder

Two ways in: compare a real storm's track against history, or describe a hypothetical scenario. Analogs are context, never forecasts.

Compare a Real Storm's Track

Pick a storm to see which historical storms score highest for similarity of path.

How matches are scored

Matches are scored two genuinely different ways: how close the tracks actually ran to each other near Florida, and how each storm handled the Florida Straits/Cuba shelf on approach — a narrow, shallow area that tends to interrupt intensification and produce more erratic short-term heading changes than the deep open Gulf or Atlantic. Both scores show separately on every card, so the ranking is never a black box.

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Comparing to

Great Mobile (1852)

peak 3 · FL impact 2.

Pre-ONI 2FL impact Major Hurricane (Cat 3+)
Formed
1852-08-19
Dissipated
1852-08-30
Peak wind
100 kt
Lifetime category
3
Min pressure
961 mb (lifetime)
Florida date
1852-08-24
Approach
gulf
FL regions
SW2 NW1
Center landfall
no
ENSO (ASO ONI)
pre-1950, no ONI
Peak surge (FL)
none exists for this era

Surge: no curated record, and none is likely to exist. Reliable landfall-zone surge observation generally predates neither the modern gauge network nor NHC Tropical Cyclone Reports for storms of this era; surge comparisons on this site skew modern as a result (disclosed on the methodology page).

Top 6 Top 20 All matches
Every storm since 1851 is included -- tap for how older matches are weighted

Storms before 1968 (radar/satellite) rank lower by a continuous confidence discount, not a hard cutoff: 1944-1967 (aircraft reconnaissance) counts at 75% of its raw match strength, 1911-1943 (station data + ship reports) at 50%, and pre-1911 (ship reports and land stations only) at 30% -- illustrative weights, not a published figure, matching the same four eras disclosed on the Zone Lab. A strong enough old match can still surface; look for "era confidence: N%" in that card's reasons.

Ranked by near-Florida path first (how close the two tracks actually ran to each other once near the state), then by Straits/Cuba approach (did each handle the shallow shelf the same way on the way in), then by trait match. These answer genuinely different questions -- a storm can wobble identically on approach and still land 300 miles apart, or vice versa -- so they are shown separately, never blended into one number.

Showing 123 matches out of every candidate that scored above zero in this range -- watch the near-Florida number taper toward the bottom of the list; that decay is the ranking actually working, not an artifact.

  • Great Mobile (1852)
  • Key West (1861)
  • Florida Straits corridor

Track colors below are always: teal = Great Mobile, orange = the comparison storm named in each card -- shaded darker where that storm was stronger at that point, lighter where it was weaker, so intensity along the path reads without losing track of which line is which. On desktop these show as compact thumbnails, three per row; being vector maps they stay crisp at any size. Click a storm's name to open its own full-size record and track.

View Great Mobile and these matches in the Zone Lab tool

View these storms on the Track Map

Key West (1861) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.6 of 2 · Straits approach 1.7 of 2 · trait match -1.7 of 8 same month, similar Florida Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL071935 (1935) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match -0.4 of 8 category within 1, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Dennis (2005) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 1.5 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida
AL021919 (1919) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0.8 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Betsy (1965) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 1.2 of 2 · trait match 0.8 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, similar Florida Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Great Middle Florida (1851) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 1.5 of 2 · trait match -0.3 of 8 same month, same peak category, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011896 (1896) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match -0.3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Kate (1985) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 1.8 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida
Andrew (1992) peak 5 · FL impact 5 near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 1.1 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 same month, similar Florida Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida
Elena (1985) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 1.6 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida
Georges (1998) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, ran very close to the same path across Florida
AL031932 (1932) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 1.1 of 2 · trait match -0.2 of 8 same month, similar Florida Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Sally (2020) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, ran very close to the same path across Florida
Ivan (2004) peak 5 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida
AL031888 (1888) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 1 of 2 · trait match -0.3 of 8 same month, same peak category, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Katrina (2005) peak 5 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 same month, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL041915 (1915) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 1.4 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL041947 (1947) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL031891 (1891) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 1.9 of 2 · trait match -0.9 of 8 same month, same peak category, similar Florida Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Agnes (1972) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Michael (2018) peak 5 · FL impact 5 near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL021929 (1929) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.8 of 2 · trait match 0.1 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL061906 (1906) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.8 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Southeastern States (1856) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 1.1 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 same month, same peak category, gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Inez (1966) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match -0.3 of 8 somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL051936 (1936) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 1.9 of 2 · trait match -0.4 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, similar Florida Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL051933 (1933) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 adjacent month, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Gladys (1968) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL021886 (1886) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.6 of 2 · trait match -0.2 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL081859 (1859) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.1 of 8 gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL051924 (1924) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Rita (2005) peak 5 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 1.6 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL021916 (1916) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.1 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Idalia (2023) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 1 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Hazel (1953) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.9 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.3 of 8 gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Middle Florida (1852) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Tampa Bay (1921) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 1 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Milton (2024) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL041877 (1877) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Great Miami (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL061882 (1882) peak 4 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0.8 of 2 · trait match -0.2 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL101924 (1924) peak 5 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0.6 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL041896 (1896) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Helene (2024) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0.8 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Florence (1953) peak 3 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 3.5 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Hermine (2016) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL041887 (1887) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Debby (2024) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 1.4 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 same month, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL011945 (1945) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.1 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL071888 (1888) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Wilma (2005) peak 5 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL061874 (1874) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021899 (1899) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 1.1 of 2 · trait match -0.7 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, similar Florida Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Alma (1966) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0.8 of 2 · trait match 2.7 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL131944 (1944) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 1.9 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL051873 (1873) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Ian (2022) peak 5 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL091947 (1947) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.1 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL041917 (1917) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 1 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL041886 (1886) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0.6 of 2 · trait match 0.1 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL051941 (1941) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 same peak category, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL061946 (1946) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 1.9 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL031873 (1873) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Labor Day (1935) peak 5 · FL impact 5 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 adjacent month, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031903 (1903) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 adjacent month, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL061871 (1871) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Twin Key West (I) (1870) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match -0.2 of 8 same peak category, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Charley (2004) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Floyd (1987) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits wobble, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Isbell (1964) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 2.9 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL081948 (1948) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.4 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Easy (1950) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.6 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Irma (2017) peak 5 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 adjacent month, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Eloise (1975) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, similar Straits approach angle, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL041894 (1894) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Erin (1995) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 same month, category within 1
Donna (1960) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0.4 of 2 · Straits approach 1 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, similar Florida Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL051878 (1878) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match -0.2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Irene (1999) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 category within 1
AL081906 (1906) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.4 of 8 same peak category, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021906 (1906) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0.5 of 2 · trait match -0.3 of 8 category within 1, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL071865 (1865) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 0.1 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL051876 (1876) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0.4 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 same peak category, somewhat similar Straits wobble, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021939 (1939) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 same month, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL051910 (1910) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021882 (1882) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 1 of 2 · trait match 0.7 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, somewhat similar Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011898 (1898) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 same month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL091945 (1945) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 1.4 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Frances (2004) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1
Baker (1950) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 1.5 of 2 · trait match 3.4 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
King (1950) peak 4 · FL impact 4 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 category within 1, similar Florida Straits wobble, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL091948 (1948) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 1.3 of 8 same peak category, similar Florida Straits wobble, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Cleo (1964) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.8 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 same month, category within 1, similar Florida Straits wobble, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL101926 (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.6 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 category within 1, somewhat similar Straits wobble, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
David (1979) peak 5 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.2 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 adjacent month
AL111909 (1909) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Earl (1998) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach
Jeanne (2004) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category
Opal (1995) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach
AL031911 (1911) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.5 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Flossy (1956) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.3 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL021949 (1949) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.3 of 8 same month, category within 1, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Dora (1964) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL011928 (1928) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 same month, category within 1, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL141916 (1916) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031912 (1912) peak 0 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Sea Islands (1893) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 same month, same peak category, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031871 (1871) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 same month, same peak category, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041871 (1871) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 same month, same peak category, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL111933 (1933) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL011926 (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL011915 (1915) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1 of 8 same month, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL011886 (1886) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041880 (1880) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 same month, category within 1, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021877 (1877) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Great Carolina (1854) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011885 (1885) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 same month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Galveston (1867) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 same peak category, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Lake Okeechobee (1928) peak 5 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.5 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL071898 (1898) peak 4 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 category within 1, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL071894 (1894) peak 2 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 category within 1, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL031859 (1859) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021852 (1852) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 0 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)

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The other direction: storms whose tracks and traits share the least with Great Mobile, for calibration.

1Key West 1861 score 1.6 | same month, similar Florida Straits wobble, similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911) 2AL071935 1935 score 1.4 | category within 1, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943) 4Dennis 2005 score 7 | adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, similar Florida Straits wobble, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida

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How matches are scored

Scoring weighs month (2), peak category (2), approach side (2), and ENSO phase (1), plus an optional point for rapid intensifiers; each match explains exactly which traits it shares.

Pick at least one trait above to search. Example scenario: October, Category 4, Gulf approach, Neutral phase; three of the last five Gulf-side October majors will look uncomfortably familiar.

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