Hurricane Intelligence Florida
Hurricane Intelligence Florida: Florida impacts and ENSO, 1851 to present. A JnGmedia property.

Fingerprint matching | 128 storms | 1851-2025

Analog Finder

Two ways in: compare a real storm's track against history, or describe a hypothetical scenario. Analogs are context, never forecasts.

Compare a Real Storm's Track

Pick a storm to see which historical storms score highest for similarity of path.

How matches are scored

Matches are scored two genuinely different ways: how close the tracks actually ran to each other near Florida, and how each storm handled the Florida Straits/Cuba shelf on approach — a narrow, shallow area that tends to interrupt intensification and produce more erratic short-term heading changes than the deep open Gulf or Atlantic. Both scores show separately on every card, so the ranking is never a black box.

clear

Comparing to

AL041877 (1877)

peak 3 · FL impact 3.

Pre-ONI 3FL impact Major Hurricane (Cat 3+) Match confidence: low
Formed
1877-09-21
Dissipated
1877-10-05
Peak wind
100 kt
Lifetime category
3
Min pressure
n/a
Florida date
1877-10-03
Approach
gulf
FL regions
NW3
Center landfall
yes (1)
ENSO (ASO ONI)
pre-1950, no ONI
Peak surge (FL)
none exists for this era

Surge: no curated record, and none is likely to exist. Reliable landfall-zone surge observation generally predates neither the modern gauge network nor NHC Tropical Cyclone Reports for storms of this era; surge comparisons on this site skew modern as a result (disclosed on the methodology page).

Top 6 Top 20 All matches
Every storm since 1851 is included -- tap for how older matches are weighted

Storms before 1968 (radar/satellite) rank lower by a continuous confidence discount, not a hard cutoff: 1944-1967 (aircraft reconnaissance) counts at 75% of its raw match strength, 1911-1943 (station data + ship reports) at 50%, and pre-1911 (ship reports and land stations only) at 30% -- illustrative weights, not a published figure, matching the same four eras disclosed on the Zone Lab. A strong enough old match can still surface; look for "era confidence: N%" in that card's reasons.

Ranked by near-Florida path first (how close the two tracks actually ran to each other once near the state), then by Straits/Cuba approach (did each handle the shallow shelf the same way on the way in), then by trait match. These answer genuinely different questions -- a storm can wobble identically on approach and still land 300 miles apart, or vice versa -- so they are shown separately, never blended into one number.

Showing 20 matches.

  • AL041877 (1877)
  • Michael (2018)
  • Florida Straits corridor

Track colors below are always: teal = AL041877, orange = the comparison storm named in each card -- shaded darker where that storm was stronger at that point, lighter where it was weaker, so intensity along the path reads without losing track of which line is which. On desktop these show as compact thumbnails, three per row; being vector maps they stay crisp at any size. Click a storm's name to open its own full-size record and track.

View AL041877 and these matches in the Zone Lab tool

View these storms on the Track Map

Michael (2018) peak 5 · FL impact 5 near-Florida path 1.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 same month, gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida
Florence (1953) peak 3 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3.4 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
Southeastern States (1856) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.1 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Kate (1985) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida
AL031873 (1873) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.1 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL051924 (1924) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.8 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL041887 (1887) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.1 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Great Middle Florida (1851) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.2 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Eloise (1975) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida
Agnes (1972) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida
Hermine (2016) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida
Elena (1985) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida
Earl (1998) peak 2 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 4 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida
Middle Florida (1852) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 same month, category within 1, gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011896 (1896) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 category within 1, gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL021877 (1877) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.1 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL061871 (1871) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.1 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL041915 (1915) peak 2 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL021916 (1916) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.5 of 8 same peak category, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Flossy (1956) peak 1 · FL impact 1 near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 adjacent month, gulf approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)

View AL041877 and these matches in the Zone Lab tool

View these storms on the Track Map

Show the LEAST similar tracks instead

The other direction: storms whose tracks and traits share the least with AL041877, for calibration.

5Michael 2018 score 5.6 | same month, gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida 3Florence 1953 score 5 | adjacent month, same peak category, gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967) 3Southeastern States 1856 score 1.7 | same peak category, gulf approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)

Describe a Hypothetical Scenario

Pick the traits you're curious about, and we'll find historical storms that match.

How matches are scored

Scoring weighs month (2), peak category (2), approach side (2), and ENSO phase (1), plus an optional point for rapid intensifiers; each match explains exactly which traits it shares.

Pick at least one trait above to search. Example scenario: October, Category 4, Gulf approach, Neutral phase; three of the last five Gulf-side October majors will look uncomfortably familiar.

Wondering about a storm active right now? The home page shows the latest NHC observations with their historical analogs.

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