Phase vs Phase, 1950-2025 (ONI coverage)

ENSO Laboratory

Head-to-head comparison of the three ENSO phases across every hurricane season from 1950 to 2025. Raw counts alone mislead when the phases occur unequally often, so each column also shows how many total seasons that phase produced, and the share that brought Florida a hurricane. Storms before 1950 predate the ONI record and are listed in the Timeline without a phase.

El Nino

22 seasons in phase

FL impact seasons7 of 22 (32%)

FL hurricanes11

Center landfalls9

Major impacts (Cat 3+)6

Gulf vs Atlantic8 / 3

Gulf 73%Atlantic 27%

La Nina

18 seasons in phase

FL impact seasons7 of 18 (39%)

FL hurricanes11

Center landfalls10

Major impacts (Cat 3+)3

Gulf vs Atlantic5 / 6

Gulf 45%Atlantic 55%

Neutral

36 seasons in phase

FL impact seasons12 of 36 (33%)

FL hurricanes22

Center landfalls17

Major impacts (Cat 3+)9

Gulf vs Atlantic14 / 8

Gulf 64%Atlantic 36%

Approach side is derived from the HURDAT2 track by a documented heuristic, not a NOAA-published field; see the methodology.

Storms Behind the Numbers

All phases El Nino La Nina Neutral

Both approaches Gulf Atlantic

5 storms match.

Season	Storm	ENSO	FL Month	Regions	Approach	Peak Cat	Min P (mb)	Landfall	Join
2022	Ian	La Nina	Sep	SW4 I-SE1 NE1	gulf	5	937	yes	name_match
1998	Earl	La Nina	Sep	NW1	gulf	2	964	yes	name_match
1995	Opal	La Nina	Oct	NW3	gulf	4	916	yes	name_match
1975	Eloise	La Nina	Sep	NW3	gulf	3	955	no	name_match
1964	Isbell	La Nina	Oct	SW2 SE1	gulf	3	964	yes	name_match

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The export carries every column above plus join confidence, pressure differences, and provenance fields, so the numbers can be verified independently.