Fingerprint matching | 128 storms | 1851-2025

Analog Finder

Two ways in: compare a real storm's track against history, or describe a hypothetical scenario. Analogs are context, never forecasts.

Compare a Real Storm's Track

Pick a storm to see which historical storms score highest for similarity of path.

How matches are scored

Matches are scored two genuinely different ways: how close the tracks actually ran to each other near Florida, and how each storm handled the Florida Straits/Cuba shelf on approach — a narrow, shallow area that tends to interrupt intensification and produce more erratic short-term heading changes than the deep open Gulf or Atlantic. Both scores show separately on every card, so the ranking is never a black box.

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Comparing to

Katrina (2005)

peak 5 · FL impact 1.

Neutral 1FL impact Cross-Peninsula Track Major Hurricane (Cat 3+) Rapid Intensification

Formed: 2005-08-23
Dissipated: 2005-08-31
Peak wind: 150 kt
Lifetime category: 5
Min pressure: 902 mb (lifetime)
Florida date: 2005-08-25
Approach: atlantic
FL regions: SE1 SW1
Center landfall: yes (1)
ENSO (ASO ONI): -0.11
Peak surge (FL): 5 ft (Southwest Florida coast, mainland Monroe County (Gulf-side exit))

Surge: storm surge above normal tide (estimated), 3-5 ft across the landfall zone. Katrina's Florida chapter: Cat 1 crossing with the higher surge on the SW coast as she exited, exceeding the east-coast entry surge. Source: NHC TCR; NWS Katrina Service Assessment.

Top 6 Top 20 All matches

Every storm since 1851 is included -- tap for how older matches are weighted

Storms before 1968 (radar/satellite) rank lower by a continuous confidence discount, not a hard cutoff: 1944-1967 (aircraft reconnaissance) counts at 75% of its raw match strength, 1911-1943 (station data + ship reports) at 50%, and pre-1911 (ship reports and land stations only) at 30% -- illustrative weights, not a published figure, matching the same four eras disclosed on the Zone Lab. A strong enough old match can still surface; look for "era confidence: N%" in that card's reasons.

Ranked by near-Florida path first (how close the two tracks actually ran to each other once near the state), then by Straits/Cuba approach (did each handle the shallow shelf the same way on the way in), then by trait match. These answer genuinely different questions -- a storm can wobble identically on approach and still land 300 miles apart, or vice versa -- so they are shown separately, never blended into one number.

Showing 6 matches.

Katrina (2005)
Ivan (2004)
Florida Straits corridor

Track colors below are always: teal = Katrina, orange = the comparison storm named in each card -- shaded darker where that storm was stronger at that point, lighter where it was weaker, so intensity along the path reads without losing track of which line is which. On desktop these show as compact thumbnails, three per row; being vector maps they stay crisp at any size. Click a storm's name to open its own full-size record and track.

View Katrina and these matches in the Zone Lab tool

View these storms on the Track Map