Hurricane Intelligence Florida
Hurricane Intelligence Florida: Florida impacts and ENSO, 1851 to present. A JnGmedia property.

Fingerprint matching | 128 storms | 1851-2025

Analog Finder

Two ways in: compare a real storm's track against history, or describe a hypothetical scenario. Analogs are context, never forecasts.

Compare a Real Storm's Track

Pick a storm to see which historical storms score highest for similarity of path.

How matches are scored

Matches are scored two genuinely different ways: how close the tracks actually ran to each other near Florida, and how each storm handled the Florida Straits/Cuba shelf on approach — a narrow, shallow area that tends to interrupt intensification and produce more erratic short-term heading changes than the deep open Gulf or Atlantic. Both scores show separately on every card, so the ranking is never a black box.

clear

Comparing to

Georges (1998)

peak 4 · FL impact 2.

La Nina 2FL impact Major Hurricane (Cat 3+) Rapid Intensification
Formed
1998-09-15
Dissipated
1998-10-01
Peak wind
135 kt
Lifetime category
4
Min pressure
937 mb (lifetime)
Florida date
1998-09-25
Approach
atlantic
FL regions
SW2
Center landfall
yes (1)
ENSO (ASO ONI)
-1.31
Peak surge (FL)
not yet curated

Surge: no curated record yet. An NHC Tropical Cyclone Report exists for storms of this era; this one is awaiting verification against it. Values are only shown after being checked against an NHC source (see methodology).

Top 6 Top 20 All matches
Every storm since 1851 is included -- tap for how older matches are weighted

Storms before 1968 (radar/satellite) rank lower by a continuous confidence discount, not a hard cutoff: 1944-1967 (aircraft reconnaissance) counts at 75% of its raw match strength, 1911-1943 (station data + ship reports) at 50%, and pre-1911 (ship reports and land stations only) at 30% -- illustrative weights, not a published figure, matching the same four eras disclosed on the Zone Lab. A strong enough old match can still surface; look for "era confidence: N%" in that card's reasons.

Ranked by near-Florida path first (how close the two tracks actually ran to each other once near the state), then by Straits/Cuba approach (did each handle the shallow shelf the same way on the way in), then by trait match. These answer genuinely different questions -- a storm can wobble identically on approach and still land 300 miles apart, or vice versa -- so they are shown separately, never blended into one number.

Showing 6 matches.

  • Georges (1998)
  • Great Middle Florida (1851)
  • Florida Straits corridor

Track colors below are always: teal = Georges, orange = the comparison storm named in each card -- shaded darker where that storm was stronger at that point, lighter where it was weaker, so intensity along the path reads without losing track of which line is which. On desktop these show as compact thumbnails, three per row; being vector maps they stay crisp at any size. Click a storm's name to open its own full-size record and track.

View Georges and these matches in the Zone Lab tool

View these storms on the Track Map

Great Middle Florida (1851) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0.6 of 2 · trait match -0.8 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL011896 (1896) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0.8 of 2 · trait match -1.2 of 8 rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Kate (1985) peak 3 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 2 of 8 category within 1, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida
Dennis (2005) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0.7 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 same peak category, rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida
AL051924 (1924) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 1 of 2 · trait match -0.2 of 8 same month, similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL021929 (1929) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0.3 of 2 · trait match 2.7 of 8 same month, same peak category, atlantic approach, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)

View Georges and these matches in the Zone Lab tool

View these storms on the Track Map

Show the LEAST similar tracks instead

The other direction: storms whose tracks and traits share the least with Georges, for calibration.

3Great Middle Florida 1851 score 1.2 | adjacent month, category within 1, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911) 2AL011896 1896 score 1 | rapid intensifier, similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911) 3Kate 1985 score 3.7 | category within 1, rapid intensifier, somewhat similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida

Describe a Hypothetical Scenario

Pick the traits you're curious about, and we'll find historical storms that match.

How matches are scored

Scoring weighs month (2), peak category (2), approach side (2), and ENSO phase (1), plus an optional point for rapid intensifiers; each match explains exactly which traits it shares.

Pick at least one trait above to search. Example scenario: October, Category 4, Gulf approach, Neutral phase; three of the last five Gulf-side October majors will look uncomfortably familiar.

Wondering about a storm active right now? The home page shows the latest NHC observations with their historical analogs.

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