Hurricane Intelligence Florida
Hurricane Intelligence Florida: Florida impacts and ENSO, 1851 to present. A JnGmedia property.

Fingerprint matching | 128 storms | 1851-2025

Analog Finder

Two ways in: compare a real storm's track against history, or describe a hypothetical scenario. Analogs are context, never forecasts.

Compare a Real Storm's Track

Pick a storm to see which historical storms score highest for similarity of path.

How matches are scored

Matches are scored two genuinely different ways: how close the tracks actually ran to each other near Florida, and how each storm handled the Florida Straits/Cuba shelf on approach — a narrow, shallow area that tends to interrupt intensification and produce more erratic short-term heading changes than the deep open Gulf or Atlantic. Both scores show separately on every card, so the ranking is never a black box.

clear

Comparing to

Sally (2020)

peak 2 · FL impact 2.

La Nina 2FL impact Cross-Peninsula Track
Formed
2020-09-11
Dissipated
2020-09-18
Peak wind
95 kt
Lifetime category
2
Min pressure
965 mb (lifetime)
Florida date
2020-09-12
Approach
atlantic
FL regions
NW2
Center landfall
yes (1)
ENSO (ASO ONI)
-0.85
Peak surge (FL)
7 ft (Pensacola-area inland bays / Perdido Key (landfall Gulf Shores, AL))

Surge: inundation above ground level, 5-7 ft across the landfall zone. Highest surge on record at the downtown Pensacola gauge (5.6 ft); extreme rainfall compounded total water levels. Source: NHC Tropical Cyclone Report; NWS surge training summary.

Top 6 Top 20 All matches
Every storm since 1851 is included -- tap for how older matches are weighted

Storms before 1968 (radar/satellite) rank lower by a continuous confidence discount, not a hard cutoff: 1944-1967 (aircraft reconnaissance) counts at 75% of its raw match strength, 1911-1943 (station data + ship reports) at 50%, and pre-1911 (ship reports and land stations only) at 30% -- illustrative weights, not a published figure, matching the same four eras disclosed on the Zone Lab. A strong enough old match can still surface; look for "era confidence: N%" in that card's reasons.

Ranked by near-Florida path first (how close the two tracks actually ran to each other once near the state), then by Straits/Cuba approach (did each handle the shallow shelf the same way on the way in), then by trait match. These answer genuinely different questions -- a storm can wobble identically on approach and still land 300 miles apart, or vice versa -- so they are shown separately, never blended into one number.

Showing 20 matches.

  • Sally (2020)
  • AL031932 (1932)
  • Florida Straits corridor

Track colors below are always: teal = Sally, orange = the comparison storm named in each card -- shaded darker where that storm was stronger at that point, lighter where it was weaker, so intensity along the path reads without losing track of which line is which. On desktop these show as compact thumbnails, three per row; being vector maps they stay crisp at any size. Click a storm's name to open its own full-size record and track.

View Sally and these matches in the Zone Lab tool

View these storms on the Track Map

AL031932 (1932) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL051936 (1936) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 1.1 of 8 same peak category, atlantic approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL041947 (1947) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.7 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 2.6 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)
AL021929 (1929) peak 4 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
Great Miami (1926) peak 4 · FL impact 4 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.6 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 1.2 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL071935 (1935) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.5 of 2 · Straits approach 0.9 of 2 · trait match 0.8 of 8 same peak category, atlantic approach, similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031888 (1888) peak 3 · FL impact 3 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.4 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 0.1 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Dennis (2005) peak 4 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0 of 8 ran very close to the same path across Florida
AL021899 (1899) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.3 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 same peak category, atlantic approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Andrew (1992) peak 5 · FL impact 5 near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0.6 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 adjacent month, atlantic approach, similar Straits approach angle, ran very close to the same path across Florida
AL031903 (1903) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.6 of 8 same month, category within 1, atlantic approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Great Mobile (1852) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match -0.4 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
AL051941 (1941) peak 3 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 1.4 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL011896 (1896) peak 2 · FL impact 2 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match -0.2 of 8 same peak category, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Georges (1998) peak 4 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 5 of 8 same month, atlantic approach, same ENSO phase, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Elena (1985) peak 3 · FL impact 3 near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 3 of 8 same month, category within 1, took a broadly similar path near Florida
AL051933 (1933) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 0.9 of 8 category within 1, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943)
AL031891 (1891) peak 3 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.2 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)
Erin (1995) peak 2 · FL impact 2 near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0 of 2 · trait match 6 of 8 adjacent month, same peak category, atlantic approach, same ENSO phase, took a broadly similar path near Florida
Key West (1861) peak 1 · FL impact 1 pre-1950 · reconstructed track near-Florida path 1.1 of 2 · Straits approach 0.1 of 2 · trait match 0.3 of 8 adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, took a broadly similar path near Florida, era confidence: 30% (pre-1911)

View Sally and these matches in the Zone Lab tool

View these storms on the Track Map

Show the LEAST similar tracks instead

The other direction: storms whose tracks and traits share the least with Sally, for calibration.

1AL031932 1932 score 2.9 | adjacent month, category within 1, atlantic approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943) 2AL051936 1936 score 2.9 | same peak category, atlantic approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 50% (1911-1943) 4AL041947 1947 score 4.2 | same month, atlantic approach, ran very close to the same path across Florida, era confidence: 75% (1944-1967)

Describe a Hypothetical Scenario

Pick the traits you're curious about, and we'll find historical storms that match.

How matches are scored

Scoring weighs month (2), peak category (2), approach side (2), and ENSO phase (1), plus an optional point for rapid intensifiers; each match explains exactly which traits it shares.

Pick at least one trait above to search. Example scenario: October, Category 4, Gulf approach, Neutral phase; three of the last five Gulf-side October majors will look uncomfortably familiar.

Wondering about a storm active right now? The home page shows the latest NHC observations with their historical analogs.

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